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Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by jmyeet on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @08:56PM (#39296901)
This reminds me of the excellent series "Blueprint for Armageddon" in Dan Carlin's Hardcore History podcast [1]. It's about the First World War. WWI tends to get less attention than WW2 and while there are good reasons why we focus on the atrocities of WW2, in some ways WWI was far more devastating.

The artillery production mentioned here reminds me of how scales changed from the beginning to the end of the war. At the outbreak, IIRC Russia produced ~35K artillery shells per month and was using ~25K per day. By 1917, there was a battle where a combined total of ONE MILLION artillery shells were fired (between the two sides) in a period of roughly 4 hours.

Every war seems to have a defining technology that's new and makes it unlike previous wars. This is rarely clear to military leadership before the war starts so tends to mean the calculations are off. For example, the US Civil War was the first war fought with mass-produced, long-range, fast-loading and accurate rifles, which led to >600K deaths. By comparison, the US lost 400k servicemen in WW2.

In WWI, that defining technology was really artillery. To a lesser extent it was machine guns too. Air power became a factor late in the war but the concepts of aerial bombardment, strategic bombardment and air superiority wouldn't really come into their own until WW2. The real solution to artillery and fixed positions ultimately became the tank But WWi ended before this really took off. Like air power, it would become a huge factor in WW2.

Why this is important is because the war in Ukraine is in many ways similar to WWI. Air power isn't really a factor but the most defining factors are artillery, trenches, fortifications and terrain, most notably the Dnipro River.

Russia has built 3 lines of impressive fortifications that mirror German positions in WWI. Russia's strategy is essentially to dig in, use the river as a barrier and wait for the West to get bored or lose patience with supplying Ukraine such that Ukraine sues for peace and Russia gains territory east of the river, creating a land bridge to Crimea.

But in a WWI style war, artillery is incredibly important. It can be used to cover an advance into a fortified position (eg a creeping barrage [2]). These were tactics that were developed and learned through WWI.

Oh and if you want to see how devastating this can be look no further than Verdun, the so-called "Red Zone" (Zone Rouge) [3].

[1]: https://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-50-55-blu...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrage_(artillery)#Creeping_b...

[3]: https://www.warhistoryonline.com/world-war-i/zone-rouge.html

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by MilStdJunkie on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @09:14PM (#39297010)
Over the last thirty years or so, it's been increasingly popular to see WW1 and WW2 as the same conflict, but with a pause for populations to stabilize and stocks to be rebuilt.

It's sometimes called "The Second Thirty Years' War", although I feel that labelling is misleading, as is, potentially, the core thesis. Careful reading of the diplomatic history illustrates that WW2, despite our popular notions, was not entirely inevitable, but, at least so far as Poland was concerned, was one more in a very long list of NSDAP f#ckups. 30 Year War Part II is a workable paradigm when considering the large scale causes of the 20th century conflicts. It's deeply, bitterly ironic that Europe was done in by the same intellectual framework that allowed them to dominate the rest of the world. Turns out, once you start throwing subhuman labels around, it's just a matter of time before the label lands on your neighbors.

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by jdougan on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @10:19PM (#39297602)
I prefer to think of the history of the 20th Century as The Great War plus repercussions.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by giraffe_lady on Thursday February 08, 2024 @12:12PM (#39304547)
I have heard a historian half-joke that we already know world war 3 started in 1914.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by golergka on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @09:40PM (#39297234)
> by the same intellectual framework that allowed them to dominate the rest of the world

People consisted other nations and ethnicities subhuman as long as they existed. Europe was, AFAIK, the first place on Earth that (1) considered subjugated people equal before the law (if they converted), (2) banned slavery and (3) imposed slavery ban on other nations.

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by triceratops on Thursday February 08, 2024 @04:11AM (#39299910)
> considered subjugated people equal before the law (if they converted)

The Mongols and the ancient Persians didn't even make anyone convert.

> banned slavery

If you don't count all the colonies...

> imposed slavery ban on other nations

It is a very admirable thing to do, but who else could do it? They had the most powerful militaries in that era.

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by golergka on Friday February 09, 2024 @01:51PM (#39318727)
> If you don't count all the colonies...

Colonies are exactly what I'm talking about.

> It is a very admirable thing to do, but who else could do it? They had the most powerful militaries in that era.

Nobody else even wanted to.

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by triceratops on Saturday February 10, 2024 @10:43AM (#39326947)
> Colonies are exactly what I'm talking about.

Tell me more about how slavery was outlawed in Haiti - especially during the French Revolution with its "liberté, égalité, fraternité". Tell me about Belgian Congo. Tell me about the close relative of slavery, indentured servitude, in the British Empire.

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by morkalork on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @09:05PM (#39296956)
And now in Ukraine FPV kamikaze drones have gone from a makeshift novelty to the government aiming to produce 1M in 2024:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-produce-million...

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by Dig1t on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @09:18PM (#39297034)
I saw a video of these things in action killing somebody on the battlefield, it was truly disgusting. Seeing videos like that has made me feel like I don’t care who wins the conflict anymore, it just needs to come to an end.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by atlasunshrugged on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @09:21PM (#39297067)
Watch some of the clips of the Bucha massacre of innocent civilians and I hope you will reassess. The war is brutal, but a bad "peace" could be worse.

https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000008299178/u...

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by Icingdeath on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @09:36PM (#39297208)
Appeasement doesn't work with this aggressor; it only emboldens them and increases the likelihood of another landgrab in a few years. The only thing they understand is force.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by coffeebeqn on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @09:50PM (#39297343)
Wanting the war to end is reasonable. Not caring who wins is extremely naive or selfish
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by Icingdeath on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @10:00PM (#39297438)
Exactly, that's why supporting Ukraine is extremely important. As long as the aggressor still thinks there's a chance to conquer more territory, the war won't end.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by rdevsrex on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @11:38PM (#39298216)
I would say that the US also belongs in the agressor camp.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by HeatrayEnjoyer on Thursday February 08, 2024 @12:45AM (#39298692)
Do you mean globally in general? They're obviously not the aggressor in Ukraine. My Ukrainian friends didn't have their their family home annihilated US shells directly or indirectly.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by hef19898 on Thursday February 08, 2024 @05:23AM (#39300335)
Whether you are an agressor or not depends on the conflict. One can be both in different conflicts, and even change roles over time in the same conflict.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by HeatrayEnjoyer on Tuesday February 13, 2024 @11:17AM (#39359157)
Yes, and in the Russian-Ukranian war Russia is the aggressor.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by missedthecue on Thursday February 08, 2024 @09:54AM (#39302594)
It worked with Stalin at Yalta in 1945, when Churchill signed away vast swaths of Eastern Europe to Soviet rule. "Appeasement" is frankly nothing more than a pejorative word for diplomacy. Be wary of those who employ its use.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by kstenerud on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @09:30PM (#39297153)
People felt this way about Europe in WW2 as well.

Freedom is paid for in blood. People forget that after a few generations of peace, and then we have to pay again because we grew complacent.

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by euroderf on Thursday February 08, 2024 @04:32AM (#39300021)
Wars seem to come and go in 50-ish year cycles. The experiences of the grandfathers are forgotten.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by missedthecue on Thursday February 08, 2024 @09:57AM (#39302642)
Not so sure. The WW2 generation plowed millions of men and billions of dollars into Vietnam.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by euroderf on Thursday February 08, 2024 @10:24AM (#39302972)
Only a rough guide.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by morkalork on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @09:50PM (#39297344)
That's a rather simplistic view of things. Anyways I'm not going get into it and instead leave you with a quote from Mr. Sherman:

>You cannot qualify war in harsher terms than I will. War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it; and those who brought war into our country deserve all the curses and maledictions a people can pour out.

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by kspacewalk2 on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @09:26PM (#39297115)
It's no more and no less "disgusting" than being burned in an APC, have your limbs torn off in a trench by an artillery shell, or slowly bleeding out after being shot in a field. You just normally don't see those deaths, and here you saw one. Why does that make you not care who wins this war, the ones waging a fascist colonial war or the ones defending their families from it?
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by skybrian on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @11:59PM (#39298391)
I’m a bit surprised that you didn’t mention drone surveillance, which apparently makes offense even more difficult?
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by robviren on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @09:33PM (#39297179)
That podcast absolutely plunged me into history in a way I never had experienced. I was astounded at how much death and horror we are capable of tolerating before the average person does something about it. WW1 history helped me get through the pandemic because no matter how bad that was I was sure living a better life than those who lived in the trenches. Cannot recommend enough.
Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by pests on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @09:40PM (#39297232)
I just read that complete page on Barrages. I never realized it had gotten so sophisticated even by 1917.

We see movies where artillery is always just raining down from the sky. It seemed so random.

It blows my mind we had complex patterns and essenstially formations and defensive walls and boxes to protect a position and just wow.

That must have been hell on the receiving end.

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by jncfhnb on Thursday February 08, 2024 @02:28AM (#39299312)
All available evidence seems to suggest that Russia has no intentions of taking the land bridge and calling it a day. They’re vocally aiming to take the whole of Ukraine. They may be trying to wait out western support but it feels shaky. Perhaps with a trump presidency.

Ukraine’s increasing ability to hit deep targets suggests to me this strategy of Russia’s will not work. The offensive pace is too slow for the immense economic costs.

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by denton-scratch on Thursday February 08, 2024 @08:24AM (#39301640)
> They’re vocally aiming to take the whole of Ukraine

Putin (following Dugin) has expressed the goal of building a Russian empire stretching from Vladivostok to Lisbon. I suppose that's just sabre-rattling; but Leningrad is very exposed, at the end of a long land corridor bordered on either side by NATO members. I'm convinced he hopes to dominate all the land between Russia and the Baltic.

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by hef19898 on Thursday February 08, 2024 @05:04AM (#39300226)
The sheer scale of WW1 in terms of material and people expended is something very hard to grasp.

As is the Eastern front during WW2, same thing, the sheer numbers are mind boggling.

Re:As Much as You Ever Wanted to Know About 155M Artillery S... by rob_lh on Thursday February 08, 2024 @02:19PM (#39306278)
I'm a huge Dan Carlin fan. I started my career as a mechanical engineer, and I have a deep appreciation for chemistry and materials science, as everything rests on that. Most of the early transistor legends were chemists after all. Hence, I wanted to go a little deeper on the technical side with this blog, focused on the here and now.