What Apple has done here is bring the console gaming model to general-purpose computing devices. I believe the EU wishes to roll that back and will probably not allow Apple's announced fees and restrictions.
Quote from their own website:
> By enrolling in the Apple Developer Program, individuals and organizations receive everything they need to develop apps for distribution.
Besides, Apple never claimed their new fee was for distribution, but for "core platform services", i.e. the SDK and tools, which they're already charging for.
> The Core Technology Fee (CTF) is an element of the new business terms in the European Union (EU) that reflects the value Apple provides developers through ongoing investments in the tools, technologies, and services that enable them to build and share innovative apps with users around the world.
"Core platform services" is the term used by the EU.
Compilers, SDKs, documentation, every vendor charged for those.
You have to thank Stallman et al. for your free C compiler.