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Re:Bayesians Moving from Defense to Offense by da39a3ee on Sunday December 24, 2023 @08:44AM (#38753406)
Why do you think it's a bad thing for your beliefs to remain the same in the absence of new data?
Re:Bayesians Moving from Defense to Offense by Dylan16807 on Sunday December 24, 2023 @01:41PM (#38755558)
I didn't say anything about what should happen to your beliefs.
Re:Bayesians Moving from Defense to Offense by da39a3ee on Sunday December 24, 2023 @09:30PM (#38759109)
You said that the prior dominating is a bad thing. The prior is your beliefs about a parameter prior to observing data (as I suspect you know!). Maybe I'm not getting what you're saying.
Re:Bayesians Moving from Defense to Offense by Dylan16807 on Monday December 25, 2023 @12:05AM (#38759999)
I was assuming these are general purpose statistics, which means you might want to share them with someone. It's bad for those to get tainted by your personal priors. If it's a purely personal calculation then sure that's fine.
Re:Bayesians Moving from Defense to Offense by hnfong on Monday December 25, 2023 @03:02AM (#38760728)
That's an interesting observation.

Let's say you have a personal belief that something is going to happen with probability x. Would you actually want to tell others that the probability is y, because that's what the data says, without letting people know that for other reasons that are not reflected in the data, you truly believe it is x?

Re:Bayesians Moving from Defense to Offense by Dylan16807 on Monday December 25, 2023 @01:47PM (#38764981)
You can give your informed opinion on the probability in addition to what you've derived from the dataset, but you shouldn't conflate them.

Your informed opinion incorporates this dataset, but you shouldn't imply it's "based on" this dataset.

Re:Bayesians Moving from Defense to Offense by da39a3ee on Wednesday December 27, 2023 @09:02AM (#38781966)
That's fine and I would agree - you could share the summary statistic used, or the likelihood ratio between the null and some alternative models.

But you shouldn't share a frequentist parameter estimate or confidence interval if you have prior information that would influence it non-negligibly, at least not without sharing that prior information also.

Re:Bayesians Moving from Defense to Offense by scotty79 on Sunday December 24, 2023 @04:35PM (#38757079)
Should you have any beliefs in the absence of data? And if you have some prior data but no additional data now why carve out past as separate thing and call it prior? Why not just call everything you have - data?
Re:Bayesians Moving from Defense to Offense by da39a3ee on Sunday December 24, 2023 @09:32PM (#38759125)
That's precisely how Bayesian inference works! But rather than having to repeat all analysis of prior data sets, we summarize that analysis in the form of a posterior, which becomes the prior for the next analysis.