A significant proportion of the current fatal accident rate is based on incidents which involve driving so bad that humans implicated are severely punished for it, or at least banned from driving for a period.
Why would anyone set the benchmark for a commercial driving company lower?
Also, we've accepted and made legal frameworks around the concept that people sometimes kill each other with cars. Robots killing people with cars does not benefit from this carve out.
I am neither, hence I will not trust any system that does not perform at least as well as I do. The bar is much higher than the average.
...which is a pretty big fallacy and, if implemented as law (which I am working to make sure it is not), will get a lot of people killed.
Literal drug addicts, people driving under the influence of alcohol, and people driving distracted are driving right now. Even AV that performs at the level of the median driver will massively reduce the number of those people actually making driving decisions, and therefore directly reduce road deaths.
Why? Because most accidents and deaths are caused by drivers performing at the low end of the spectrum. In the US, a full third of accidents are caused by drunk driving - which would be virtually nonexistent with AVs ("virtually" because the AVs aren't going to be perfect and are going to need manual intervention).
The bar is literally the average, because if everyone drove average, deaths would plummet.
And, unlike the American public, it's massively easier to improve AV driving behavior than average human driver behavior. A system that starts out eliminating the lower end of driving performance while improving over time is a deal too good to turn down if you care about human life.
Wouldn't the most important safety question be "whether Waymo’s technology makes fatal crashes MORE likely?" Why assume Autonomous Vehicles have to perform better?
Waymo less fatalities == Win
Waymo same fatalities == Draw
Waymo more fatalities == Bad Waymo