> Will we be 10,000 times more productive or will we be out of work? I think a lot of people will be out of work.
It can be both. Automation of farming means we've gone from a constant risk of starvation to an epidemic of obesity, while simultaneously reducing the percentage of the workforce in agriculture.
no one is going to be using AI and then just have it 'replace them', they're going to use it to augment their abilities and avoid replacement.
A manager can prompt a chatbot to write a thing instead of prompting me to write the same thing — for the moment, what (I hope) keeps me employable is that the the chatbot is "only" at the level of getting good grades rather than n-years professional experience.
I have no expectation for any specific timeline for that to change. Perhaps there are enough incentives it will never get trained to that level, but also perhaps it was already trained 4 months back and the improvement to capabilities are what caused the OpenAI drama.
You could easily flip it around, ask the bot to manage you better than your manager and make the best use of your time, or something like this?
Right now we're still OK because the AI isn't good enough; when it gets good enough, doing things manually is as economically sensible as making your own iron by gathering a few times your mass in wood, burning some of in a sealed clay dome to turn it into charcoal, digging up some more clay to make a porous pot and a kiln to fire it in, filling it with iron rich bacterial scum from a creek, letting the water drain, building a furnace, preheating it with the rest of the wood, then smelting the bacterial ore with the charcoal, to yield about 7 grams or iron.