The Middle Ages alchemists were more modest in their predictions. Here's what ChatGPT says about it:

"In essence, the forecasts made by alchemists were more about the spiritual and personal transformation they believed would accompany their pursuits, rather than a concrete timeline for achieving the material goals of transmutation and immortality. The language of alchemy was intentionally veiled in mystery and open to interpretation."

your sense of humor is much appreciated. couldn't have said it better. hah :) basically i would suggest the study to expand to everyone doing anything titled AI at this moment.

While I get your point and agree, there apparently is no Dunning-Kruger effect. It was determined to be yet another case of faulty data analysis in behavioral psych.[1]

1. https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2022/04/08/the-dunning-k...

That paper was thoroughly rebutted when posted to HN.

But Gwern has written about some earlier debunkings of the D-K effect, ad furthermore D-K was never about the popular misconception of D-K ("incompetent people think they are more competent than competent people").

I don't think that's a mainstream take. But I can settle with:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect

Or even

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grandiose_delusions

That first article cites more behavioral psych research, which has the absolute worst track record of data analysis. After so many retractions and scandals, I find it difficult to know what to believe anymore.

And HN!

HN about anything finance related is funny. Basically same level as reddit/gamestonks