Not sure about the others but I don’t think Ellison is walking. Her reward for cooperation was just a letter to the sentencing judge noting her cooperation.

Not true. The prosecution agreed to only pursue criminal tax violations. See my other comment.

She pled guilty to 7 counts. 1 Count of actual wire fraud and 6 counts of various "Conspiracy to commit wire fraud, commodes fraud, securities fraud and money laundering". They have a total maximum sentence of 110 years.

Prosecution agreed to not pursue any additional charges, except perhaps criminal tax violations.

IANAL, but I think you misunderstand her plea agreement.

The plea deal also includes the prosecution electing to charge her with much lesser crimes than they otherwise could.

She still faces jail time even with the plea and cooperation.

None of them "walked". They all pled guilty and have not been sentenced.

Man, I'm low on sleep and making mistakes. I misunderstood the cooperation agreement[0] to mean she would only be prosecuted for criminal tax violations. I see now she has plead guilty to fraud though [1].

[0] https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23495436/crypto-coope...

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/12/21/caroline-...

> "the defendant will not be further prosecuted criminally by this Office for any crimes, except for criminal tax violations"

That has nothing to do with her sentencing and is typical of any plea agreement. I’m not going to plead guilty to crimes without the guarantee that you’ll not charge me with more. What would be the point of pleading guilty then?

You're right, I was just editing my comment as you posted that. I'm going to go be quiet now lol.

SBF is going to be pardoned by the Dems. Guaranteed. He donated far too much money for him not to be pardoned. Not just to reward SBF, but to signal to anyone else that the Dems have their back if they donate enough. The same goes for the Republicans as well. Trump pardoned Levandowski as one of his final acts as president.

The world doesn’t work this way. Not because it’s just or that there’s no corruption: it’s because there’s little benefit to Joe Biden. This is a high profile case. It’ll only trigger more scrutiny into everything. And Sam is an isolated, broke man with no friends. Why would anyone help him for money he’s already given?

You’re way off base.

The campaign finance trial is next March I believe. Could also trigger more scrutiny into everything if Sam pleads not guilty. I think guy’s stuck in prison, but who knows. A guilty plea from Sam might be preferable.

You have a tell :-)

That seems extremely unlikely.

I’ll bet you $1,000 USD he does not get pardoned by Biden.

Let me clarify, he won't pardon SBF before the 2024 elections, but afterwards he will, either in 2025 or 2029 on the last day of his term. And if Biden dies, then his VP will pardon SBF.

I would definitely take the $1000 bet, but I don't make bets with strangers who probably won't pay up.

You might find a prediction market you can bet in.

If SBF is pardoned by Joe Biden, or any other Democratic president, I will make a $2,000 donation to the charity of your choice.

It's not going to happen. 0% chance.

Agreed.

Can you provide precedent?

Here are 140:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Clinton_pardon_controve...

Marc Rich appears to have been comparable in severity of fraud but avoided conviction let alone all the other attention grabbing things Sam has done. Not to mention all the Israel connections.

If Sam has a pardon coming then he’s done as much as he possibly can to make it damaging to the pardoner. Can’t see it happening. Parents, maybe. They haven’t played this like asshats.

Nobody is walking. All of them will be jailed, but some will get lighter sentences.