It depends on there being _some chance_ that it can be achieved.

The benchmark strategy we are comparing it against is tantamount to licking a wall repeatedly and expecting that to achieve something. So even a strategy that may well fail but has _some_ chance of success is a lot better by default.

Not with this. Failure to align a powerful AI is a mistake we only get to make once. This is like playing Russian roulette, where the amount of bullets missing from the magazine is the degree to which we can properly align the AI. Right now, we're at "the magazine is full, and we're betting our survival on the gun getting jammed".

Assuming you mean drum here; it's pointless to play russian roulette with a magazine fed weapon (which in a way could be an own metaphor for this predicament).

I did, and you're right in both of your points.