That seems like very 20th century thinking. We should be aspiring to shape public transport to the needs of the riders instead of making the riders learn fixed routes and transfers. Waymo is very likely to be superior to existing public transportation in all dimensions for almost every transit need. There might still be a role for big buses and trains in the peak of rush hour (if that still exists).

The needs of the rider are predictable. You cannot make shared vehicles both flexible and predictable. Fixed routes are predictable and thus easy to plan your life around. When fixed routes are also frequent there is no sacrifice in that.

I don’t think the needs of the riders are predictable. Large upfront costs and static design routes are a major risk (see the Detroit public transit that serves areas no longer of much interest and is often empty). That’s why many politicians favor buses as an example; they’re flexible enough to move with demand.

Public transportation depends on a critical mass of customers with significant overlap in their trips. If you deviate from fixed routes you start to describe a taxi service.

Depends on what you’re trying to optimize for. Flexibility? Sure. Energy utilization, congestion, or GHG emissions? Probably not.

The problem is for the bus to stop near you, it has to stop often. To stop often, it has to move slowly, which means it will take forever to get to your destination. A separation of local and express busses you transfer between could possibly help. But if the theory is that you’re going to take a local, to get to an express, to get to a local near your destination, then you’ve wasted a ton of time on transfers. Good luck getting to your destination in less than an hour.

I’m a fan of public transit and have experienced many good public transit systems. The unfortunate truth is that in any neighborhood with less-than-extreme population density, you have to shape your life around the system by living and working near core transit lines to get reasonable travel times. That works great for people who can do that (I’ve done it myself!), but a better system could aim higher to serve the entire public. The American built environment simply can’t be adequately served by traditional bus networks.

Living in city with frequent stops, the stops do not slow them down so much. IF you add "looking for a parking place" into estimation for a car, going by bus is frequently faster (which is why I frequently pick bus - it is more predictable and faster).

No need to look for parking when you call the robotaxi.

Then of course you wait for robotaxi.

> The problem is for the bus to stop near you, it has to stop often. To stop often, it has to move slowly, which means it will take forever to get to your destination.

Add bus lanes and smart traffic lights (giving busses permanent green waves), this stops being the case. Busses should never be stuck in traffic. That's bad for scheduling and makes them needlessly unattractive.

But the bus is already stopped, its in my garage waiting for me. And I don't need to figure out what bus lines I need to change to or understand their schedules, the route for this bus happens to be exactly where I want to go.

I'm generally pro-transit and continue to vote for it, but in many places and routes a car is often more convenient if one can afford it.