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Re:Does Market Timing Work? by dh2022 on Sunday October 08, 2023 @12:49PM (#37812117)
If they remove the cap on retirement contributions they should also remove the cap on retirement payouts. I would love to see social security pay former CEOs millions of dollars per year:)
Re:Does Market Timing Work? by yterdy on Sunday October 08, 2023 @01:35PM (#37812595)
No, they shouldn't. SS is meant to prevent destitution, not enable luxury. Wealthy Americans owe the working and consumption classes whose sacrifices make their riches possible; there is no such obligation to ensure those elite earners get back even what they paid into that particular channel, at the expense of people who are much less well off, when they have other resources to draw from.

You might not think that's fair. I do. Even under this hypothetical regime, I know who I'd choose to be: rich and paying a ton in taxes, in a heartbeat.

Re:Does Market Timing Work? by bumby on Sunday October 08, 2023 @03:40PM (#37813737)
Devils advocate: by subsidizing the “consumption class” you enable more consumption. I get that’s how our current economy works but there are probably a lot of negative externalities associated with increasing consumption.
Re:Does Market Timing Work? by yterdy on Wednesday October 11, 2023 @01:14PM (#37847276)
That's fine. Sure, there are downsides that increase as consumption increases, meaning that overconsumption (however that's defined) is undesirable. However, consumption enables cultural expression that otherwise would be economically untenable. Art, design, music, etc. benefit from economic incentives to overproduce beyond subsistence. That people go above and beyond in their productive capacity in order to enable creators to create freely and contribute to the corpus of human expression is something that should be recognized as the sacrifice for the collective soul that it is.
Re:Does Market Timing Work? by bumby on Wednesday October 11, 2023 @04:49PM (#37850083)
That's a good point, and I'm in favor of those 'cultural expressions'. But I think we're fooling ourselves if we think somebody is buying a gas-guzzling SUV, or the next iPhone, so they will have the ability to write the next great American novel. I'd venture that most consumption is a status game.

I think my larger point is we have to zoom out for a systems level analysis. We shouldn't assume that the production is de-coupled from the consumption, and production can come with a host of negative externalities. I'm not convinced that wonton consumption (especially for the sake of itself) is a net positive, given human nature's tendency to be insatiable with regard to consumption.

Re:Does Market Timing Work? by yterdy on Sunday October 15, 2023 @08:49AM (#37889309)
>I'd venture that most consumption is a status game.

I would include the debasement of one's moral soul for social-climbing purposes in the set of aforementioned sacrifices. :)

In any case, I did mention the dangers of overconsumption. There is something in between that and subsistence that is a net-positive for society (in this epoch, at least).

Re:Does Market Timing Work? by the_gastropod on Sunday October 08, 2023 @02:03PM (#37812884)
I don't understand why the mental model for SS is any different than any other service the government provides. People don't expect their tax payments to proportionally determine: their access to roads, law enforcement services, fire protection, access to GPS or weather data, etc. Government's purpose is to facilitate the common good. Some fortunate individuals are able to contribute more, some less fortunate individuals are able to contribute less.

I'm relatively lucky in that I do hit the SS income cap every year. And I think it's extremely stupid that my paycheck suddenly grows 6.2% well before the end of the year every year. I can absolutely afford to continue paying my 6.2% tax, just like everyone else, and not need special treatment when withdrawal time comes in retirement.

Re:Does Market Timing Work? by AnthonyMouse on Sunday October 08, 2023 @03:21PM (#37813580)
Social security was sold as an insurance program and would have to be completely redesigned to operate like other programs -- you'd essentially want it to be a UBI for everyone over a particular age funded out of general revenues, and might be better off to make it a real UBI for just everyone.

But it's "the third rail" because there is so much money on the table. It's a program that makes transfer payments, which is zero sum, so any change will be fought hard by whoever ends up worse off than they are under the status quo.

Re:Does Market Timing Work? by wolverine876 on Sunday October 08, 2023 @07:08PM (#37815249)
How is it like insurance? At least from one perspective, insurance is hedging risks - you put in a little and if something happens, you get a lot back.

Social Security is compulsory savings, and you get out pretty much what you put in.

(Maybe I'm focusing too much on one word.)

> it's "the third rail" because there is so much money on the table.

Also, I think because people feel an existential threat - some people rely on that money to survive.

And because, after seeing that deduction every two weeks for their entire lives, they want their payout.

Re:Does Market Timing Work? by AnthonyMouse on Sunday October 08, 2023 @07:41PM (#37815427)
> How is it like insurance?

It pays until you die instead of paying until you run out of savings. The risk it's insuring against is that you live longer than the average person and outlive your savings.

> Also, I think because people feel an existential threat - some people rely on that money to survive.

Nah, the more sensible of the reform proposals are the ones that convert it into a fixed payment for everyone. Those proposals are still every hard to pass because some people would get more than they do now and some would get less, and the people who would get less are the more affluent people with no existential risk, but they would still fight it.

> And because, after seeing that deduction every two weeks for their entire lives, they want their payout.

The program started by making payouts to people who never paid in. Their money is already gone, given to their own parents.

Re:Does Market Timing Work? by toast0 on Sunday October 08, 2023 @11:53PM (#37816779)
Really, it's not like insurance, because no insurer would structure their program the way that social security is structured.

But it is like insurance in that the program is named Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Program.

It's also like insurance in that the payout is related to the premium / taxes. If you pay your premiums and experience the covered risks, you (or your survivors) get paid.

It's not like savings, because if you don't experience disability, or old age, you don't get paid. Your survivors might still get something though, I don't know much about survivor benefits.

Disability insurance is available from private insurers, but with different terms. Old-age insurance is more or less an anuity, again available from private insurers, with different terms.

The biggest difference with social security is that smaller incomes (and thus, smaller payments into oasdi) get a larger payment per dollar income if they experience a covered event. Another major difference is that if one has multiple former spouses of marriages that lasted at least 10-years, they're all potentially eligible for spousal benefits and they don't have to share it: no private insurer would sign up for that. Also, the actuarial tables are rarely updated and rather out of date at this point.