10 ad impressions per user might not sound like much, but you're going to get a lot of people installing your app, not liking it, and uninstalling it. The way the mobile game business works the "install count" means almost nothing, you need many, many, many installs to start making any money at all because so few people 'stick around' to actually make you any money.
Regardless of how they spin it, this model is very bad for the FtP games, which is the vast majority of games now.
I’m hoping you can answer these with concrete data. If that’s not possible, could you share your references?
2 cents with the pro-license only applies after the first 1M installs, tallied per month. If a game is under 100K installs per month, a pro license only lowers the install fee from 20 cents to 15.
The other issue is how they measure "installs", as it has been a constant problem in the mobile community for years on end (a problem especially affecting the ad industry as you may imagine). I personally don't see how they will accurately measure the cases mentioned in the tweet without forcing everyone to have some authentication.
If Unity just counted number of buyers they wouldn't have to deal with malicious installs and users of their engine would have more predictable costs. But for some reason they don't want that, and that alone is suspicious.
No matter what is the app.
This sales model will ruin indie devs who aren't so eager to swallow adtech's shaft that they're content with rolling out malware to their users.
Unity has published what "whatever they want" currently is. It doesn't matter if people get the details wrong on that because Unity can change its mind.
That being said, you're still more wrong than the author on the details. The change is retroactive in that it applies to existing applications. The author was very clear what they meant by "retroactive":
> this change will be done retroactively on existing applications as well.
This is true.
The $0.20 is not retroactive, nor do you need to hope your users see 10 and impressions to cover a cost to the game developer -- you need to earn $200,000 _and_ have 200,000 installs. A free game would not be charged, and if you don't believe you can muster 10 ad impressions per user (to cover the unity install cost of $0.20), the base cost of the game can be increased by < $0.01 across your 200,000+ sales starting next year when the policy takes effect on new installs.
[1] https://twitter.com/unity/status/1702077049425596900