Can you name a G20 nation which isn't modelling this, and about 100 other flashpoints? Isn't this what defence department risk analysis people do for a living?

Here's my hot take: China won't want to fight India with steel shovels and rakes up in their border disputed region because no sane economy wants to fight a war on two fronts. So India may gain 20 to 25m in that border dispute for a decade or so.

If the mainland invaded Taiwan India would stay out of it.

They have an interest in weakening China so they might follow any sanctions better than they follow those against Russia but that's about it.

The other side of this modelling is that the PLA is trying very hard to look bellicose because it has to, but it's telling its masters how hard a defended landing in rough seas is, and how UAV and drones have changed the shape of war, and reminding their bosses that with 20%+ youth unemployment and the property boom crashing the government is in the pits for popularity right now, so once bodybags start coming home it's a bad year for everyone.

The Taiwanese will be hurt bad, but there is no way the PLA is simply waltzing up the beaches. It will be a contested landing, there will be massive losses, of ships, of materiel, and of citizens. Ukraine is telling them to think very hard about what they really want.

It's more likely the KMT regain power and there's a soft rapprochement. At least one candidate has said as much.

Imho: unlikely while the Russia-Ukraine war is ongoing.

Why? Both China and Russia are good at playing the long game. So China will probably want to see what Russia gets out of its war (if anything), before deciding whether invading Taiwan is worth it. Or determine how to go about it.

Hopefully Taiwan keeps up (and up-to-date) its defenses enough that any invasion by China would be more costly to agressor than any possible gains.

Promises of (military) support for Taiwan by 3rd nations do help here. Yes if shtf things may escalate much further. But it also makes invading Taiwan a much riskier proposition, potentially much more costly than if 3rd nations leave Taiwan to defend itself without help.

I'm counting on China to not be stupid enough to take such risk.

This is basically latest US push to get more countries to publically "think about" rear area support (you'll find simliar "think about" pieces from SKR,JP,PH now IND lately) to hopefully add strategic dilemma for PRC decision process for TW conflict when it's not really a dilemma at all. Any country that supports military efforts against PRC is party to the war, they know this privately, but pretend publically they can support US without getting hit. Delimma only works in cases like RU/UKR where RU is trying not to drag in US, but if PRC already fighitng US east asian security bloc, piling on IND is basically what eastern theatre command is is already dedicated to. Not to mention it could trigger India's concern with two front war with PAK/PRC.

My hot take is LAC is basically going to turn into a no mans land with autonomous fires. Territory too inhospital for large scale war. India population centres too close for PRC to make progress. But PRC industrial heartland shield by plateau - too far for Indian capabilities to disrupt. Unless they allow US basing, then it will get... very ugly. But more or less there's no winning for either side. Only escalation is IND start hitting PRC shipping in Indian Ocean (which will piss off MENA and RU exporter) in which case PRC conventional rockets can take out India refineries in return, which is basically going to spread to CONUS and other US east asian security parters, because if PRC is going to have her energy disrupted, everyone else is going to live like North Korea as well. TLDR is until countries formally commit to TW defense, it's all theatre.

so this is basically the US preparing and coaxing and whispering in the ears of "india" to take a proactive step when the reasonable action should be to do nothing

If you are interested in the Indian military-strategic outlook, you should follow the Bharat Rakshak forums. (https://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewforum.php?f=20&sid=75d...)

The scariest form of WW3 is India and China both reinforcing their long alliance with Russia (since 1949~ in both cases) With billions of people they could deploy millions of troops to the few hundred biggest cities and occupy the world in ways no other powers could