Re:India’s Military Studying Options for Any China War on Ta...
by dirtyid on Friday September 08, 2023 @02:20AM
(#37430092)
This is basically latest US push to get more countries to publically "think about" rear area support (you'll find simliar "think about" pieces from SKR,JP,PH now IND lately) to hopefully add strategic dilemma for PRC decision process for TW conflict when it's not really a dilemma at all. Any country that supports military efforts against PRC is party to the war, they know this privately, but pretend publically they can support US without getting hit. Delimma only works in cases like RU/UKR where RU is trying not to drag in US, but if PRC already fighitng US east asian security bloc, piling on IND is basically what eastern theatre command is is already dedicated to. Not to mention it could trigger India's concern with two front war with PAK/PRC.
My hot take is LAC is basically going to turn into a no mans land with autonomous fires. Territory too inhospital for large scale war. India population centres too close for PRC to make progress. But PRC industrial heartland shield by plateau - too far for Indian capabilities to disrupt. Unless they allow US basing, then it will get... very ugly. But more or less there's no winning for either side. Only escalation is IND start hitting PRC shipping in Indian Ocean (which will piss off MENA and RU exporter) in which case PRC conventional rockets can take out India refineries in return, which is basically going to spread to CONUS and other US east asian security parters, because if PRC is going to have her energy disrupted, everyone else is going to live like North Korea as well. TLDR is until countries formally commit to TW defense, it's all theatre.
My hot take is LAC is basically going to turn into a no mans land with autonomous fires. Territory too inhospital for large scale war. India population centres too close for PRC to make progress. But PRC industrial heartland shield by plateau - too far for Indian capabilities to disrupt. Unless they allow US basing, then it will get... very ugly. But more or less there's no winning for either side. Only escalation is IND start hitting PRC shipping in Indian Ocean (which will piss off MENA and RU exporter) in which case PRC conventional rockets can take out India refineries in return, which is basically going to spread to CONUS and other US east asian security parters, because if PRC is going to have her energy disrupted, everyone else is going to live like North Korea as well. TLDR is until countries formally commit to TW defense, it's all theatre.