Degradation vs. collapse. Collapse is still preventable.
If we'd stop fossil fuels, reform agriculture and reforest what we can, we'd be able to reverse the warming and let biodiversity rebound. Continue for few decades, and the carrying capacity falls drastically.
I don't buy into that at all; massive waves of climate refugees, environmental disasters, loss of coastal urban space, economical crises: sure-- but collapse of civilization?! I simply don't see that happening, to me that appears like completely unfounded pessimism.
But feel free to try and change my view...
I was referring to the collapse (significant degradation) of the environmental carrying capacity. In such a scenario, our civilization would implode on its own.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPb_0JZ6-Rc
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_overshoot
https://www.stuartmcmillen.com/comic/st-matthew-island/
> But feel free to try and change my view
It's a complex topic ... I only can give you a few links. The system we live in is very complex ... and as in every complex system even a minor error can cripple the system. Just remember how much damage to the economy was caused by just one ship blocking the Suez.
I don't think the system is able to handle large-scale agricultural failures, prolonged droughts or abrupt sea level rises. Everything seems to be changing more rapidly than predicted - from air and sea temperatures to thawing, droughts, biodiversity loss, etc.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/07/climate-...
Climate Collapse Could Happen Fast - As temperature and weather records fall, Earth may be nearing so-called tipping points.
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/cata...
Catastrophic climate 'doom loops' could start in just 15 years, new study warns
https://www.iflscience.com/chances-of-societal-collapse-in-n...
Chances Of Societal Collapse In Next Few Decades Is Sky High, Modelling Suggests
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/4/3/32
The Human Ecology of Overshoot: Why a Major ‘Population Correction’ Is Inevitable
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1810141115
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01157-x
Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers
https://apnews.com/article/climate-united-nations-paris-euro...
UN warns Earth ‘firmly on track toward an unlivable world’
https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/limits-to-growth.html
Limits to Growth
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/09/the-planet-...
The planet heats, the world economy cools – the real global recession is ecological
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01448-4
Humans are driving one million species to extinction
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/13/almost-7...
Animal populations experience average decline of almost 70% since 1970, report reveals
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/ecological-cliff-edge/
Ecological cliff edge
E.g. as "negative externatilites that were not appropriately taxed".
Because "subsidies" implies tax dollars being spent to deteriorate the situation, while the reality is basically the reverse.
And it is VERY obvious that this doesn't simply happen because "big oil" did so much lobbying that the government misrepresents the will of the people-- voters were visible in favor of subsidies and lower fuel prices (especially blatant during Ukraine-price spikes in Europe).
Just picture running on a "100% fossil fuel taxation to be spent on improved public transport" platform-- what country you think would elect that right now? Much less re-elect...
> We have only a few years/decades to reverse the effects of past actions; after that point, they'll become irreversible.
I disagree with this viewpoint: I think long term consequences are already completely inevitable, any current and future actions are only gonna change the exact magnitude.