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Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by ww520 on Monday August 28, 2023 @04:07AM (#37291182)
The problem started long time ago when the central government took most of the tax revenue from the local provincial and city governments leaving them without funding to operate. As a compensation, they were granted the authority to sell the land use right of their lands. Land is never privately owned in China. What is sold is the right to use the land for a period of time.

Since the state owned all the lands and the local governments as the sole supplier of lands, they became a monopoly in land sale. As with any monopoly especially a unchecked one they pushed to raise prices all the times to gain maximum profit. The regulation and policies of the governments aimed to build more and to keep raising the property price years after years because that's what brought in the money.

It has become unsustainable as people couldn't afford the high price. There're a glut of houses and sales have been slow yet the governments have prohibited the lowering of the price as lower housing price means lower tax revenue. There're some cases when developers lowered the price and got hit with huge fine and jailed.

High price and slow sales mean the developers like Evergrande cannot get rid of the inventory to get the capital back to fund further development. They have already sold the not-yet-built houses for the next phase but have run out of money. Couple years back the central government had forced the banks to put in severe limits on loans to the developers. They turned to shadow banks like investment fund trusts to raise money but those are blowing up just now, defaulting on bond payments. They have no money to finish the projects. They owe huge amount of debts, owe huge amount of unpaid taxes, and owe the unbuilt houses to customers. They should have been bankrupted a long time ago but the governments won't let them.

This is a huge problem for China. Housing development comprises about 25%~30% of GDP; its blowup would cripple the economy. Most ordinary people's wealth are largely tied to the value of their homes; a large drop of the house value hits most people hard, forcing them to cut back on spending, further putting down the economy. The financial institutes like banks, shadow banks, investment funds, etc have lost huge amount of money as developers unable to pay back their loans and people defaulting on their mortgages. The lowering of the property value would force more loans gone underwater. There'll be a string of bankruptcy. The local governments have large revenue shortfall and yet saddled with huge debts, because guess what, they were in the game to invest to build housing. The shortfall forces them to lay off workers, cut back on salaries, cut pensions, and cut back on services. Even the central government has no money. Last year they openly said that beyond some emergency fund there's no money left.

Any option for solutions is a bitter pill and no one has the political will to do it. It's just a downward spiral.

Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by throwaway161718 on Monday August 28, 2023 @04:47AM (#37291419)
"The financial institutes like banks, shadow banks, investment funds, etc have lost huge amount of money" My understanding of the core problem is - Money has to come from somewhere. It is the result of China becoming world's workshop. Chinese have 45%+ saving rate and those powered up the FIs' balance sheets. This money funded all the buying of land rights, development of housing etc. How Chinese govt. deals with these toxic balance sheets before Chinese people decide to make a run for the banks, that will determine how this crisis unfolds. Ultimately there never is free lunch, unless you are the US which can print it's way out of any problem it creates for itself - what times! (be aware - the comment is by some anonymous guy on the Internets. Its most value maybe as a 'mildly entertaining conjecture'.
Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by ww520 on Monday August 28, 2023 @02:39PM (#37298635)
China has also printed a lot of money. As the currency is not freely exchangeable, it's largely unnoticed.

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/458148/china-m2-broad-mo...

[2] https://thesoundingline.com/kyle-bass-china-has-printed-more...

Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by MrsPeaches on Monday August 28, 2023 @05:50AM (#37291796)
Greatly appreciate your detailed post. Very interesting!

Could I kindly request that you update your post with references?

This sounds very plausible, but it's difficult to acertain the veraciy of the claims.

Even if the references are anectodal, or based on your experience, it would be really helpful to know where this knolwege is coming from.

Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by ww520 on Monday August 28, 2023 @11:16AM (#37295453)
Ha. You’re asking for a research paper. Which areas you want citation? I’ll see what I can do later today when I got the time.
Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by MrsPeaches on Friday September 01, 2023 @07:28AM (#37349402)
If a research paper is required, sure.

Even just how you think you know this, would be helpful.

Is it what people are saying in social media? Is it a theory you have synthesised from other sources? What are those sources?

Just using the HN referencing style [1] where you are making a factual claim.

Understand it’s a lot of work for a stranger on the internet, hence the friendly request.

[1] like this

Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by ww520 on Friday September 01, 2023 @11:58AM (#37352456)
If you want a research paper, can you do a book report on every single one of the references?

To be frank, it’s a huge entitled ask. What have you done to educate yourself in these areas besides asking strangers in the internet to do the work for you?

Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by TheOtherHobbes on Monday August 28, 2023 @05:57AM (#37291841)
The end game is a political crisis. Chinese peopple tolerated the semi-dictatorship of the CCP while the economy appeared to be booming. If the economy collapses there's going to be a very unpleasant - likely violent - crisis of legitimacy.

It's one reason China is pushing a BRICs currency. If China can print its way out of this disaster there's some hope of mitigation - messy, but not fatal.

If that doesn't happen there's a good chance of a financial and political implosion, with possible Western contagion.

Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by nradov on Monday August 28, 2023 @08:44AM (#37293122)
China is not pushing a new BRICS currency. They want the BRICS and others to use their existing currency, the yuan, for international trade. Of course this is never going to happen beyond token amounts, especially not in India.
Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by r00fus on Monday August 28, 2023 @06:03PM (#37300965)
Lula, leader of Brazil (ie, the "B" in BRICS) is calling for a common currency.

"I am in favor of creating, within the BRICS, a trading currency between our countries, just like the Europeans created the euro"

This does not sound like just using the Yuan, and is more likely to gain support of the bloc. I'm pretty sure Lula and Modi do not want to trade one devil (US) for another (China).

https://www.reuters.com/article/spain-brazil-lula/update-1-b...

Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by treis on Monday August 28, 2023 @06:38AM (#37292115)
>Even the central government has no money.

They have several trillion in US Dollars.

Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by ww520 on Monday August 28, 2023 @11:14AM (#37295410)
Those have equal obligations.
Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by treis on Monday August 28, 2023 @12:11PM (#37296358)
Can you expand? Not sure what you mean.
Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by ww520 on Monday August 28, 2023 @12:50PM (#37297017)
I assume you were talking about their 3.2T foreign exchange reserve. A large portion of that is foreign direct investment money from outside which needs to be paid back when moved out. China has up to 2.7T foreign debt as of last year, which needs to be paid back in foreign currencies. There're a fair amount of currency needs for facilitating import and export. There's not much left in the pool.
Re:Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resume... by ww520 on Monday August 28, 2023 @02:18PM (#37298343)
As per request, references after some quick searches. I cannot edit the original comment; here's the list.

Tax-sharing system between the central and local governments in China.

- https://www.encyclopedia.com/international/applied-and-socia...

Land ownership in China.

- https://www.lehmanlaw.com/resource-centre/laws-and-regulatio...

Government's reliance on land sales over the years.

- https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/local-governments-...

Local governments' debts related to housing.

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_government_financing_veh...

- https://www.reuters.com/world/china/debt-laden-local-governm...

Limited banks' lending to developers.

- https://therealdeal.com/national/2021/01/03/china-limits-pro...

Housing price to income, one indicator among many on housing affordability.

- https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_count...

Vacancy info

- https://www.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2020/5104578/

- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-16/china-s-h...

- https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25297/w252...

Housing glut

- https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/global-equity/ever...

- https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/12/business/evergrande-homeb...

Real estate developers ran out of money.

- https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/investing/evergrande-default-...

- https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/24/investing/china-evergrande-gr...

- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/18/china-property...

- https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/04/economy/chinese-developer-shi...

- https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/china-property-defaults-risk...

Developer owe unpaid taxes

- https://www.gnewswire.org/en/2023/08/20/chinese-real-estate-...

Shadow banks and investment trusts defaulting

- https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/18/economy/china-zhongrong-trust...

- https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-trust-deficit...

Share of housing sector in GDP.

- https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/the_size_of_c...

- https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/nber_27697_pe...

Large household wealth tied up in home value

- https://fortune.com/2021/12/02/chinese-real-estate-investing...

Homeowners stopped paying their mortgages

- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-62402961

- https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/14/economy/china-property-crisis...

Government running out of money.

- https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/chinese-premier-li...

Government cutting salaries, pension, and services.

- https://www.visiontimes.com/2022/02/02/shenzhen-civil-servan...

- https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/china/china-slashes...

- https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/5/11/chinas-cash-stra...

- https://thehongkongpost.com/2022/02/01/china-asked-governmen...

- https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/31/economy/china-pension-protest...

- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/15/business/wuhan-china-prot...