Re:Probability Can Bite
by kuboble on Monday August 21, 2023 @09:06AM
(#37209021)
I think the trickiest part is that the other party willingly shared some information and their motives affect probabilities way more than any math.
I find it easier to think about this problem stated like this: let's say you go around asking people " do you have exactly 2 children and at least one of them is a boy?".
What are the odds of them having 2 boys if they answered yes.
Re:Probability Can Bite
by HWR_14 on Monday August 21, 2023 @01:31PM
(#37212703)
All probability questions suffer from the same bias. The Monty Hall problem doesn't work if the person offering the choice has some agency and motives.
I find it easier to think about this problem stated like this: let's say you go around asking people " do you have exactly 2 children and at least one of them is a boy?". What are the odds of them having 2 boys if they answered yes.