Probability Can Bite

Re:Probability Can Bite by kqr on Monday August 21, 2023 @08:28AM (#37208553)

It is not sufficient to know one of them is of some sex. For the probability to be 1/3, you need to be asked what the probability is that one of them is a specific sex, not just any sex.

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Re:Probability Can Bite by kuboble on Monday August 21, 2023 @09:06AM (#37209021)

I think the trickiest part is that the other party willingly shared some information and their motives affect probabilities way more than any math.

I find it easier to think about this problem stated like this: let's say you go around asking people " do you have exactly 2 children and at least one of them is a boy?". What are the odds of them having 2 boys if they answered yes.

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Re:Probability Can Bite by HWR_14 on Monday August 21, 2023 @01:31PM (#37212703)

All probability questions suffer from the same bias. The Monty Hall problem doesn't work if the person offering the choice has some agency and motives.

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