Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

Re:Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink by cs702 on Saturday August 12, 2023 @12:41PM (#37101925)

By many measures, China looks and smells like it's already in the early stages of a major financial crisis and deep recession -- even if the government publicly, adamantly insists otherwise.[a]

My biggest hope is that the economic pain will induce soul-searching and push the country away from authoritarianism, leading to a gradual transition into a modern democracy -- to the detriment of party apparatchiks.

My biggest fear is that party apparatchiks push for policies that can lead only to armed conflict -- e.g., seeking to annex Taiwan by force in the short run -- in the hopes of maintaining their status.

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[a] See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101496 and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37101229 for background.

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Re:Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink by jamesaurichs on Saturday August 12, 2023 @01:04PM (#37102133)

With numbers like 1.) YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT is somewhere between 20% and 50%, 2.) 95% decrease in FDI https://unherd.com/thepost/foreign-investment-plummets-as-th... 3.) double digit plunge in import and export in July https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/china-reports-double-digit-p... 4.) negative CPI

I would call it what it is: China is in a great depression

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Re:Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink by unstatusthequo on Saturday August 12, 2023 @02:02PM (#37102670)

And assume any number they provide to the “outside” is also exaggerated in their favor. So I assume any number provided is at least, a best case figure, or total invention.

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Re:Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink by nradov on Saturday August 12, 2023 @01:52PM (#37102576)

Regardless of the political and economic issues, the CCP leadership is well aware that they still lack the amphibious lift capacity to invade Taiwan's main island. It will take a few more years at least to build that capacity. In the mean time if they choose to make a push it will likely be toward some of the smaller islands closer to the mainland.

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Re:Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink by christkv on Saturday August 12, 2023 @02:15PM (#37102770)

Any move towards the smaller island will most likely trigger an American buildup of forces on Taiwan itself.

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Re:Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink by proxiful-wash on Saturday August 12, 2023 @02:40PM (#37102997)

I mean this would be good for the whole planet, if only we got stop the 10 cent army today instead of 40 years from now when they have poisoned discourse for the whole planet.

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Re:Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink by white_dragon88 on Sunday August 13, 2023 @08:12AM (#37109184)

Sycophants

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Re:Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink by cs702 on Sunday August 13, 2023 @10:47AM (#37110519)

Thanks! Actually, it looks like both spellings are acceptable, but "sycophant" is more common. Maybe using the less common spelling was a Freudian slip on my part...?

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