Currently 39% sure. https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-...

What’s the track record of open prediction markets (no barrier to join) vs super predictor markets (have some requirements - be it credentials, proven expertise, or track records)?

I keep seeing markets like this posted for LK99 and personally find it unconvincing more than a sentiment analysis of the twitter and news hype cycle.

The track record is pretty good, even including a bunch of small markets with few traders: https://manifold.markets/calibration

We're not, and don't think there's a physicist in the world who wouldn't advice tempering expectations at this point. Yes it would be exciting if it's the real deal, but it's also far from the first candidate we've seen and so far they've never been replicated.