Just curious...who funded Columbus? It's a dream of lot of people to sail in some interesting direction hoping to hit it big. I think it's important to have a vision (however approximate that might be). But not a lot of people can afford to sail towards that vision without caring to achieve shorter-term milestones. In the process though, you may learn something more about the reality that changes/influences your vision...

I see your (and PG's) point, and I think he tied it to a terrible example. Basically, Colombus won big despite being wrong on so many aspects. In truth he was just very (incredibly) lucky. Thus I take the point as "do something stupid, you might just get lucky on something unrelated!".

But I understand that PG's real point is "trust your instincts, don't listen to the naysayers, but adapt to the circumstances".

I don't think it should be necessary to be right about a lot of aspects. Going out and discovering how thoroughly wrong you are is a huge achievement.

Even better when your friends can arrange for you to get paid a couple million for that.

With the extra benefit that had Colubus not stumbled upon an unknown continent, he would have died.

I don't think my job is anywhere as risky.

Something about a pivot in there too....