I see your (and PG's) point, and I think he tied it to a terrible example. Basically, Colombus won big despite being wrong on so many aspects. In truth he was just very (incredibly) lucky. Thus I take the point as "do something stupid, you might just get lucky on something unrelated!".

But I understand that PG's real point is "trust your instincts, don't listen to the naysayers, but adapt to the circumstances".