In business, it works more like:

Get one coin flip right => get 10 flips for free.

You sound like someone who's never tried to start a rocket company.

Did you?

I'm not saying the success of a company is entirely down to luck. That would be stupid. I'm saying that some part of it is. I suspect Musk has been luckier than most, mainly because he's had more success than most. If he hadn't had some of that luck then any of his ventures could have failed.

I completely agree. Musk reminds me of Eric Hartmann, the most successful fighter pilot ever with 352 kills. Much is made of his skill as a pilot, but what isn't said is that he had to crash land 16 times and each time he came away from it fine and kept going. Tremendously lucky, something like 1/2^16 odds of surviving that. He was, however, also an exceptional pilot, who in particular understood how to tilt the odds in his favor. You could say that he also had the good luck to be the best at what he did.