you've seen the playbook in ukraine twice now
there will be an russian speaking minority in estonia/lithuania/... that will that rebel against anti russian oppression, guerilla warfare against the authorities, then they'll hold an rigged referendum, then a decade later the Russian government will formally annex what they've effectively controlled for years
he won't send tanks across the border that will trigger Article 5
Well don't oppress them. Anyways in Ukraine Russian speakers are hardly the minority. In Baltic states however Russian speakers are true minority and do not matter much. They can't hold a referendum. Your logic does not make any sense to me.
What's this supposed to mean?
Certainly it's not referring to the portion of native speakers.
So you mean it's OK to oppress people just because they are Russian, or speak Russian? And the bad guys are those against oppression?
Long story short I am not sure NATO Eastern Europe is protected 100%. Luckily for now Putin cannot afford another front but there is already some saber rattling between Belarus and Poland and Wagner is in Belarus.
I doubt Putin is suicidal. Eastern Europe is in NATO, hence protected.