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Re:How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? by yreg on Tuesday July 04, 2023 @11:13PM (#36595140)
The Doomsday Argument[0] relates to this. It says that since the reader is born in the current times with there being X billion humans so far, statisticslly there shouldn't be too many more (not say tens of trillions).

I don't think the logic is too sound though. Or rather that the premises should be taken for granted.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument

Re:How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? by jvanderbot on Tuesday July 04, 2023 @11:26PM (#36595206)
Reading admitedly quickly, it appears to actually say that there shouldn't be more than 2 trillion total humans, and we're, at 117Bn, so yeah, there's a lot left if we make it all the way to the upper bound.
Re:How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? by fbdab103 on Wednesday July 05, 2023 @12:13AM (#36595450)
I take solace in the Rebuttals section being longer than the actual argument.
Re:How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? by jcranmer on Wednesday July 05, 2023 @12:56AM (#36595654)
I like Randall Munroe's summary of the argument (https://what-if.xkcd.com/65/):

> Almost everyone who hears this argument immediately sees something wrong with it. The problem is, everyone thinks it's wrong for a different reason. And the more they study it, the more they tend to change their minds about what that reason is.

Re:How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? by dataflow on Wednesday July 05, 2023 @02:41AM (#36596334)
I guess I'm one of those people because I read Wikipedia and this seems like a complete non-sequitur to me:

> The Copernican principle suggests that any one human is equally likely (along with the other N-1 humans) to find themselves in any position n of the total population N.

I feel like I must be misunderstanding the argument because it just doesn't make sense to me. First, why should I even assume N is finite? Second, even if I did, not everyone had an equal chance of participating in this hypothetical thought-experiment (or random selection or sampling, or whatever you want to call it) -- only those alive right now do. How is this different from saying: every dollar you make is equally privileged to every other one, therefore I can just fish out a $1 bill from your pocket and use that single dollar bill to estimate your expected lifetime income?

Re:How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? by Denvercoder9 on Wednesday July 05, 2023 @05:07AM (#36597733)
> First, why should I even assume N is finite?

Our current understanding of physics dictates that the (observable) universe has a finite size and a finite lifespan, from which it logically follows that there can't be an infinite amount of humans.

Re:How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? by dataflow on Wednesday July 05, 2023 @05:18AM (#36597807)
If that's genuinely the basis for this reasoning, it only makes the argument seem even more dubious to me. If the statistical argument is really so sound, it shouldn't have to rely on our understanding of cosmology.

Also, is there no phenomenon here where a sufficiently large N becomes increasingly indistinguishable from infinity?

Re:How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? by zeroonetwothree on Wednesday July 05, 2023 @10:01AM (#36600627)
The entire universe could very well be infinite, with infinite “Earths” and “humans”. In which case the argument doesn’t work since you can’t choose uniformly from an infinite set.
Re:How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? by zeroonetwothree on Wednesday July 05, 2023 @10:06AM (#36600678)
I don’t think the argument is wrong but it has the same problem as any non-repeatable statistical prediction. Namely that you don’t get to repeat it so it’s easy to make an error and hard to calibrate.