That’s strange because the 2022 deficit alone exceeds defense spending by a factor of ~2. DoD spending was up ~10% since 2012, which social security spending was up ~50%.

Social Security spending is from a dedicated levy, which generates more income than it costs.

In 2012, the US was fighting two wars, so the fact that DoD spending didn't go down by 2022 is indicative of the problem.

It's also misleading to use the few years when there was substantial pandemic related spending as indicative of the US's normal spending habits.

> Social Security spending is from a dedicated levy, which generates more income than it costs

Your information is out of date. Costs have exceeded tax income since 2010 and have exceeded total income (tax plus interest) since 2021.

The OASI trust fund that pays social security retirement benefits is projected to have a $53B (3.8%) actuarial shortfall this year, up from $40B last year. The trustees project this shortfall will increase every year thereafter until the fund is completely depleted ten years from now (assuming no change in law)

https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/tr23summary.pdf

Do your numbers still hold with the vastly higher interest rates today compared to 2021?

Yes, those numbers are all from the document I linked, the most recent annual report released this May.

The US national debt has risen because of extreme tax cuts. It was pretty low until Reagan, who cut a lot of taxes and had the debt start spiralling out of control, yet most social programs started way before Reagan.

The military spending that really added to the debt were primarily the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.