Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ...
by madrox on Friday June 16, 2023 @06:09PM
(#36364600)
When I was taught statistics, this was regularly brought up as a big no-no in science. However, I read a guide to practical statistics that had a gem about predicting the stock market. If we discovered surges in the market correlated to newspaper sales, we wouldn't discard this as look-elsewhere. In fact, we'd follow newspaper sales very closely.
Predicting earthquakes has a big upside for humanity. If there is even a small correlation -- even if we don't yet understand it -- we can benefit from it.
Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ...
by rcxdude on Friday June 16, 2023 @07:26PM
(#36365370)
It can be useful, it's just you need to keep monitoring it: if the effect seems to shrink or disappear on future tests, it's probably spurious.
Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ...
by mnky9800n on Friday June 16, 2023 @06:32PM
(#36364847)
Most of particle physics is people searching for jobs that give meaning to their life. This often biases them against finding results against meaning.
Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ...
by idlewords on Saturday June 17, 2023 @12:21AM
(#36367256)
Not to mention that they are themselves made of the particles they study, which ineradicably biases their outlook.
Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ...
by mnky9800n on Saturday June 17, 2023 @09:20AM
(#36369953)
Never be made out particles. That's true.
Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ...
by jaggederest on Friday June 16, 2023 @05:59PM
(#36364498)
This is related to the fact that in a higher-dimensional space the hamming distance between two points is compact, compared to 2d/3d intuition. This problem is related to the way that e.g. embedding text into an AI for comparison purposes often produces surprisingly closely related vector distances for relatively unrelated strings.
Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ...
by Ringz on Friday June 16, 2023 @06:04PM
(#36364543)
Can we transfer this to the financial markets?
Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ...
by GolDDranks on Friday June 16, 2023 @05:59PM
(#36364492)
The obligatory XKCD: https://xkcd.com/882/
Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ...
by breck on Friday June 16, 2023 @06:17PM
(#36364700)
In GWAS studies there's a nice visualization for dealing with this called Manhattan Plots. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_plot
Basically if you test a lot of hypotheses plot all the p-values and look to see if there is something that is a true outlier or whether it is expected given so many tests.
I believe in particle physics this is known as the “look-elsewhere effect”. Basically if look long and hard enough for a pattern, you will eventual find it if your parameter space is large enough: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Look-elsewhere_effect