Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ... by jvanderbot on Friday June 16, 2023 @03:37PM (#36362604)

Precursor signals for earthquakes is a field that has about as much credibility as astrology, from the few conversations I've had with professional geologists and planetary scientists. I had a minor and short-lived role in designing a sensor network that might be useful for these kinds of low-signal, high-noise precursors, and I got nothing but strange looks from actual geologists.

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Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ... by mnky9800n on Friday June 16, 2023 @06:34PM (#36364862)

There are plenty of precursors for an earthquake. Or maybe there are none. But it doesn't much matter because timescales of earthquakes can be thousands or more of years. While timescales of data is about a hundred years.

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Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ... by musicale on Friday June 16, 2023 @08:53PM (#36366003)

> as much credibility as astrology

If this sort of scientific astrology ends up providing precursor signals for future earthquakes, why would geologists have a problem with it?

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Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ... by jvanderbot on Friday June 16, 2023 @09:05PM (#36366097)

You're assuming an a priori bias. Astrology didn't lose favor because of some societal decree, it lost favor because it had no predictive power. It seems to be the same with analysis of precursor signals, and the subfield apparently went a little nuts and started to sound like quackery and data fudging.

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Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ... by musicale on Friday June 16, 2023 @09:21PM (#36366213)

Were geologists skeptical of the actual data from your sensor network?

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Re:Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to ... by jvanderbot on Friday June 16, 2023 @09:25PM (#36366235)

(editing to hit a moving target)

We started the study with a good faith survey and intent to use space and ground signals in sync to detect impending earthquakes on nearish term. We had good technologists and scientists. As the study went on it became clear that all the scientists were completely unconvinced. Sure we could have built out the network but it wouldn't have done much. Most the scientists either lost faith or write dissenting opinions as part of the report. We did our job putting out the report but it was clear there was nothing to do after.

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