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Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by graypegg on Thursday June 15, 2023 @03:52PM (#36345601)
I think when looking back through history, the continued torture of the entire North Korean population is going to be one of the most tragic events of the 21st century. Despite the regime originating earlier, it feels to be most tragic now; long after any maligned geopolitical reason for the regime to exist has since disappeared. It’s something we don’t think about often currently, because it’s almost become a joke. The crazy hermit kingdom. But I really feel like we’ll look back at how we ignored it for so long shamefully. I don’t know what we could be doing though of course. I hope that will become clear soon.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by arp242 on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:17PM (#36345898)
> I really feel like we’ll look back at how we ignored it for so long shamefully

One of the big problems has long been that North-Korea has a large network of artillery within shelling distance of Seoul. Now they also have rockets and nukes and stuff, but even without those any serious threat to NK would come with devastating cost of civilian lives in South-Korea.

See e.g. [1], which estimates that "the DPRK could cause thousands of casualties in just a minute and more than 100,000 in an hour" and some of the case studies in that report have more than 200,000 in an hour. And all of that assumes only conventional HE rounds – no chemicals or nukes. And all of that is in the first hour alone: a full war would cost millions of lives (during the Korean war, South Korean casualties were about a million civilians and 250,000 soldiers).

You need to move carefully when you've got almost 6,000 pieces of artillery pointed at your head, never mind nukes, and the people in control of them seem rather unhinged.

I've seen people express this kind of "we should have just intervened" opinion before, and in principle I don't disagree, but it's really not that simple: both due to the strong risk of heavy civilian casualties, and the geopolitical impact with the USSR during the cold war (and to lesser degree, contemporary China and Russia – I can already see China invade Taiwan using "but you invaded NK!" as an excuse).

[1]: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA619-1.html

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by leeter on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:38PM (#36346203)
It's a complicated issue. Part of the problem is nobody really wants to fix it because the costs will be enormous. When and if the regime falls it's going to take tens of billions of dollars in aid to keep it from destabilizing South Korea. Not to mention the massive refugee crisis that will occur. I'm pretty sure that's one of the many reasons why China hasn't dealt with it. Because the vast majority of refugees would go north across their border.

China has made it clear they aren't particularly thrilled with the idea of having someone not under their thumb next to their border as well. As a consequence of that... the "best" scenario would probably be China invading. But "best" is definitely in scare quotes as that could go VERY wrong very very quickly. I think the PRC is aware of that too. So unfortunately that means the DPRK will starve, because the realpolitik is such that solving the issue is just not a tenable solution for all the other parties.

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by arp242 on Thursday June 15, 2023 @05:12PM (#36346564)
> When and if the regime falls it's going to take tens of billions of dollars in aid to keep it from destabilizing South Korea.

On the other hand, the current costs of hostilities isn't free either as militaries don't pay for themselves; e.g. a 10% decrease in military spending for countries like South-Korea and Japan would save billions every year (right now, both are increasing spending).

I agree it's not a simple situation because there are 25 million mostly uneducated starving North-Koreans you've got to do something with, but in purely financial terms you're probably going to save money in the long run.

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by pydry on Thursday June 15, 2023 @05:16PM (#36346608)
The regime is very stable - contrary to the impression western media imparts. It could easily continue for another 50 years.

Part of the problem is that threatening North Korea plays into the hands of the Kims - it makes the "strongman leader" more attractive.

Invading Iraq and tearing Libya to pieces really didn't help.

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by graypegg on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:22PM (#36345967)
That’s a good point, I was wrong to use “ignore”. It’s a lot more complicated.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by GartzenDeHaes on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:42PM (#36346253)
That's military industrial complex propaganda. The North Korean air force consists of just 40 MiG 29's. The ROK military outclasses NK in every way that matters, including 167 F16's, 60 F15E's, and 40 F35's. This is in addition to the 160 F16's the US has stationed there.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by arp242 on Thursday June 15, 2023 @05:03PM (#36346480)
I'll assume that is the case, but that says exactly nothing about artillery capability or the damage this can do in just a matter of hours. How many pieces of (often fortified) artillery do you think those 427 places can take out before shelling starts?
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by GartzenDeHaes on Thursday June 15, 2023 @06:30PM (#36347589)
The report you link to provides no evidence that NK has the capability to launch such an attack. The idea that NK has 6000 serviceable artillery tubes and large stocks of serviceable ammunition in the field and ready to be used within an hour is difficult to believable, especially without evidence. This would require propositioned weapons and munitions similar to the Maginot line, which NK does not have nor can it afford.

I'll also point out that ROK and the US maintain 24/7 surveillance of NK depots and munitions storage areas (and pretty much everything else). NK could not attempt to mount such an operation without being detected. Unless they use their 100 year old stealth biplanes, then all bets are off.

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by foverzar on Friday June 16, 2023 @08:05AM (#36355157)
> air force

It's just a single branch of military, quite useless if there is modern missile-based air defense in place.

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by nazka on Friday June 16, 2023 @02:55AM (#36352510)
I was about to say the same thing. It’s not that it was ignored. They are doing their awful things because they have guns pointing at South Korea while being backed by China. And now some quite capable cruse missiles.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by xhevahir on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:42PM (#36346255)
Why do you say there's no more geopolitical reason for the country to exist? The Cold War is long over but China may well see DPRK as a valuable buffer and a means of diluting the military capabilities of rival countries. Belarus, another dictatorship that seems to be frozen in time, has a similar role vis-a-vis Russia.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by reducesuffering on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:00PM (#36345699)
What would you have the world do? Tens of thousands of Americans died trying to prevent it in the Korean War. Even if North Korea didn't have nuclear capabilities, it's asking for Iraq 2.0 (dictatorship threatening others, populace under severe oppression)
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by OkayPhysicist on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:08PM (#36345801)
If China decided they would no longer back North Korea, the regime could be replaced in hours. Most of the time, when toppling regimes, you have to be worried about someone even worse taking over. In this case, I don't see how it could get any worse.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by andrewinardeer on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:19PM (#36345920)
History has shown that tempting fate like this often doesn't end well.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by arp242 on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:39PM (#36346219)
> I don't see how it could get any worse.

The embattled regime could employ a scorched earth policy and will launch all the weapons they've got, resulting in millions of civilian deaths. That seems worse to me.

It's not like Saddam Hussein or the Taliban, or even Putin's Russia.

If it wasn't for that Korea could be reunited and it will probably end up fairly well, similar to how the reunification of Germany ended up well.

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by Symbiote on Thursday June 15, 2023 @06:06PM (#36347301)
The economic, industrial, agricultural, social, technological and cultural differences between north and south Korea are far, far greater than between east and west Germany.

Germany still has east-west integration problems.

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by arp242 on Thursday June 15, 2023 @06:20PM (#36347443)
Almost every country has regional differences; for a variety of reasons. "Integration problems" is overstating the issue IMO.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by netsharc on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:31PM (#36346110)
What I imagine would happen is the North Koreans who have suddenly stopped becoming prisoners in their own land trying to enter China, and then China would have to post guards at the border, and be responsible for the mess, including violence, trying to stop them coming in. So the Chinese government probably has an interest in keeping an NK government alive, that way they can claim "He's the evil dictator oppressing his citizens, the mess over there is not our problem!".

I wonder why that's my first thought, rather than the citizens wondering "Well, the government is gone, let's build a collective to self-govern." -- I guess people would rather join a structured society somewhere else rather than try to build one themselves (probably out of nothing, in NK). Not to mention yeah, even if the current asshole is gone, the next asshole is probably busy setting up shop to resume the oppression.

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by kneebonian on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:50PM (#36346353)
An important matter to understand is that a power vaccum fills very quickly, and often a power vacuum is filled by the most sociopathic, brutual and ruthless people around because they are willing to do anything necessary to secure and retain power.

Many good and normal and moral people would want to self organize and self govern and build something better from the ashes of a fallen country, the problem is that those good and honest people will be manipulated, tricked, and murdered by those who are more brutal and cunning than them.

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by cryptoegorophy on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:20PM (#36345940)
Any worse? Pol Pot?
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by dirtyid on Thursday June 15, 2023 @05:05PM (#36346501)
PRC has little control over NK whose the one that's been limiting cross border trade. NK would rather starve a few people in exchange for autarky / independance. NK only started openning up to agri imports from PRC / RU in Q1 this year, but that's mainly due to may/june being toughest period for NK agri production - "sprint poverty" right before harvest. All PRC can do is deal with NK like everyone else, while also encourage their missile program since they'd rather NK fling their target at Japan or US West Coast than PRC.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by graypegg on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:03PM (#36345742)
I mentioned at the end of my comment I don’t have a good solution. I think something being tragic and shameful is possible even if we don’t have a solution. Just on a human level, this is humans doing horrible things to other humans. To me that’s shameful for all of us on the scale of history.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by samastur on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:15PM (#36345877)
How is it shameful if nobody can think of a solution? What is there to be ashamed of, lack of omnipotence?

Tragic, disappointing sure. I also happen to disagree that it is ignored or forgotten, this article just being the latest example.

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by graypegg on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:31PM (#36346093)
I’m probably being needlessly emotional about it. Anytime you look back in history you have all of the foresight from however many years after. I’m sure we’ll know a even more about what’s going on currently in 2023 way off into the future.

On a purely logical level, we did what we could. But when people talk about other world events (WW2 for example) they’ll often wonder why the average person didn’t fight whatever horror was going on then.

Does it ignore the entire context of the situation, yeah. But it’s odd that I think we’re in that time now.

I’m being emotional because I have a cold, I’m in bed, reading something that made me sad. Take that with a grain of salt haha

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by ydnaclementine on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:11PM (#36345832)
If the world can get through the Cold War and Germany reuniting, I feel there is a chance for NK at some point in the future (however slim)
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by 2OEH8eoCRo0 on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:03PM (#36345739)
I would have gave MacArthur whatever he needed to win.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by ksherlock on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:10PM (#36345820)
He wanted nuclear bombs in NK and China.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by nickff on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:31PM (#36346095)
Do you have a citation for that? The only sources I've seen have said that others suggested offensive use of nuclear weapons, then scapegoated MacArthur when the studies were leaked/released to the public.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by kneebonian on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:51PM (#36346367)
I maintain that the second greatest mistake the US ever made was not giving McArthur the bombs he wanted.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by ksherlock on Thursday June 15, 2023 @05:26PM (#36346710)
What's your number one mistake then? Not nuking Russia in 1945 or asking Stalin to help out in Asia?
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by dangerwill on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:12PM (#36345836)
What you are referring to is allowing MacArthur to have nuked China when they entered the Korean war, aka killing millions of civilians and leaving the eastern seaboard of China irradiated for generations. We should be glad he was kept on his leash.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by nickff on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:24PM (#36346011)
MacArthur repeatedly rejected suggestions for such use of nuclear and chemical weapons, stating that he would only use them to prevent an ultimate fallback. It seems that others, such as Bradley, Ridgeway, Truman, and even Eisenhower were more in favor of escalation than MacArthur, who seems to have been made something of a scapegoat upon his dismissal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relief_of_Douglas_MacArthur#Nu...

Sidenote: I am not a MacArthur 'fan', but he was a very complex character

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by okdood64 on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:24PM (#36346000)
> leaving the eastern seaboard of China irradiated for generations

It might depend on the particular warhead, but this was not the case for Hiroshima and Nagasaki...

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by mrguyorama on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:43PM (#36346269)
The nukes we had by korea were much larger
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by vkou on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:15PM (#36345881)
> I think when looking back through history, the continued torture of the entire North Korean population is going to be one of the most tragic events of the 21st century.

1. Not the utterly pointless, banal conflicts started by lies and personal vendettas that have already killed hundreds of thousands and millions of people, spilled over into neighbouring (and not so neighbouring) countries, and destabilized entire parts of the world?

2. If this is going to be among the worst of this century, you must have an incredibly optimistic outlook on what the next 80 years are going to look like!

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by graypegg on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:20PM (#36345943)
I’m not going to get into a conversation comparing tragedy to find the top 10. I said “one of” specifically for that reason. I don’t think deciding if there’s actually worse things going on actually adds anything here. (A thread specifically about North Korea)
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by kelipso on Thursday June 15, 2023 @04:37PM (#36346190)
When you say "one of the most" key word here being most, yes, you are 100% inviting comparison. I'm not interested in the discussion itself but you were definitely inviting comparison.
Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by glimshe on Thursday June 15, 2023 @05:40PM (#36346902)
Not only 21st century. While we've seen brutal dictatorships in the past, we've never seen one with access to 21st century technology to further their goals. The old dictatorships could only be so efficient, but the scale and sophistication of North Korea's actions is unprecedented.

Unfortunately, it's not as much ignoring as it is the few options available. If there is one country that can do something about it, that would be China - they currently prop the regime. But I wouldn't hold my breath that China, also one of the most immoral regimes in history, would care about what North Korea is doing as long as it keeps bothering the US.

Re:North Koreans speak secretly to BBC from inside closed co... by foverzar on Friday June 16, 2023 @08:34AM (#36355520)
> the continued torture of the entire North Korean population is going to be one of the most tragic events of the 21st century. Despite the regime originating earlier, it feels to be most tragic now; long after any maligned geopolitical reason for the regime to exist has since disappeared

Their real "torture" is western sanctions and exclusion from global trade. The reason for the regime to exist has never disappeared and will persist for as long as North Korea is being attacked. Everything about it being "crazy hermit kingdom" stems directly from the dominant political-economical institutions isolating North Korea and by extent all the individuals from the rest of the world.

There is no excuse for treating people like that for generations. Worse than that, this ends up serving as a self-fulfilling prophesy that allows propaganda state media like BBC to push its narratives.

Yeah, for sure people will suffer, but that's not their government who is being tyrannical - everyone is pretty much aware who specifically fuck with their livelihoods.

Even worse, there seem to be lots of people in the west who actually seem to think that this approach is doing something positive and it's ok to be completely fascist as long as it serves some glorious political purpose.