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Re:Show HN: StonksGPT – A Natural Language search tool for S... by jsight on Thursday June 01, 2023 @03:46PM (#36156380)
I feel like "hallucinating" is the wrong word. It is essentially predicting the next word based upon its neural net and training. If this training does not have the right data, it will predict things that are wrong.

While knowing might be impossible, it seems like the model could provide a confidence level and only provide answers that exceed some threshold. It'd be a bit like asking a human "are you sure about that?"

And in practice, I really don't think it is that different. We humans effectively make things up all the time. Sometimes we are well aware of our educated guesses and sometimes we are less aware.

It isn't realistic to expect an artificial intelligence to be vastly better than human intelligence in this regard.

Re:Show HN: StonksGPT – A Natural Language search tool for S... by yreg on Thursday June 01, 2023 @06:02PM (#36158017)
The catch is that the models don't have confidence. They cannot distinguish between knowing something for sure, guessing something and hallucinating false knowledge.

Perhaps researchers will find some clever solution to mitigate this, but for now hallucinating is a pretty good word precisely because the model doesn't give confidence.

Re:Show HN: StonksGPT – A Natural Language search tool for S... by T-A on Thursday June 01, 2023 @06:35PM (#36158369)
The Internal State of an LLM Knows When its Lying

https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.13734

Re:Show HN: StonksGPT – A Natural Language search tool for S... by yreg on Thursday June 01, 2023 @07:49PM (#36159028)
It's not surprising that this information is somehow saved in the internal state, but it is surprising that they were able to read it to some level.

I don't think the model can access this information, but an external "lie detector" would be interesting. Thanks for the paper.

Re:Show HN: StonksGPT – A Natural Language search tool for S... by shreyshnaccount on Thursday June 01, 2023 @10:57PM (#36160315)
that seems wrong.. don't llms runs on probability distributions? Won't they have confidence built in?
Re:Show HN: StonksGPT – A Natural Language search tool for S... by yreg on Friday June 02, 2023 @03:34AM (#36162212)
I don't think probability of tokens can be mistaken for confidence of knowledge being correct. I'd take it more as a fitness whether the tokens fit naturally in the sentence.
Re:Show HN: StonksGPT – A Natural Language search tool for S... by shreyshnaccount on Friday June 02, 2023 @08:37AM (#36164267)
Makes sense, but i wonder if there's some way to retrofit that functionality onto it