Goldman Sachs Research just pushlished their own analysis as well. [2] Their conclusions are "As tools using advances in natural language processing work their way into businesses and society, they could drive a 7% (or almost $7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period." and "Analyzing databases detailing the task content of over 900 occupations, our economists estimate that roughly two-thirds of U.S. occupations are exposed to some degree of automation by AI. They further estimate that, of those occupations that are exposed, roughly a quarter to as much as half of their workload could be replaced."
[1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130.pdf
[2] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/generative-ai-co...
From [2]: "Analyzing databases detailing the task content of over 900 occupations, our economists estimate that roughly two-thirds of U.S. occupations are exposed to some degree of automation by AI."
These are people who do not understand the jobs they are claiming AI will do. Ultimately, I think they are not doing much better than guessing.
- Alan Kay
At this point in time, it’s hard to tell whether moats will arise around large language models. Peter Tiels thinks so or he wouldn’t have invested (see his Competition is For Losers presentation).
What is unlikely is that semi-good companies will thrive. Maybe for a few years but at some point the smaller players will be pushed out of the market or need to find a specific niche. Just look at cars to see this. Around 1900 there were hundreds of car brands.
> let's take McKinseys rough estimates of job displacement (~30% of ~60% of jobs, ~20% of work)
I think we forget that our perspective of AI now is comparative, probably to that of a preindustrial worker worried about machines. Displacement, sure but complete replacement seems a non nuanced view of how it may all turn out.
To say a market that large will be owned by only 4-5 companies doesn't make sense. Let's take the PC market for example: there are roughly 6 companies that make up ~80% of the market, sure. However, let's look at a tiny participant compared to the total market (~65B): iBuyPower at rank #77 had sales of 40MM or 0.06% (small, expected) of the market with a much smaller capital investment. If look at this percent compared to 5T, we would be at 3B. While the 5B investment stated in the headline could result in a lower ranking and smaller share, the point stands that there is still a lot of money to be made on the long tail. Even if Anthropic fails, there will be other companies with similar infusions that succeed.