From [1]: "In our study, we employ annotators who are familiar with LLM capabilities. However, this group is not occupationally diverse, potentially leading to biased judgments regarding LLMs’ reliability and effectiveness in performing tasks within unfamiliar occupations."

From [2]: "Analyzing databases detailing the task content of over 900 occupations, our economists estimate that roughly two-thirds of U.S. occupations are exposed to some degree of automation by AI."

These are people who do not understand the jobs they are claiming AI will do. Ultimately, I think they are not doing much better than guessing.