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Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by Communitivity on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @02:24PM (#35443936)
I expect jobs to be lost, but new jobs to be created. For example, prompt engineers. There is already a job board for prompt engineers (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35436168). I've been told they can make around $300k. I wouldn't be surprised to see the quant developers among the hardest hit by AI automation, maybe 10 quants replaced by one high-skill quant who can write the necessary prompts.
Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by BaseballPhysics on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @02:32PM (#35444034)
Eh we've heard that song before but it rarely turns out to be true. Rust belt cities didn't transform with new kinds of jobs and industries. They just crumbled and fell apart.

Absent coordinated action by government to reorient economies as these new technologies take over, I fully expect wealth inequality to only get worse and for more and more white collar folks to be left behind. That's just wealth concentrating capitalism in action, which is inevitable when left to it's own devices.

Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by Pet_Ant on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @02:40PM (#35444153)
They are saying new jobs will show up. Not that they will be available for those displaced or even in America. Just that jobs will show up. "Jobs" is often callous or disingenuous because when they say it, they know it's not how people generally use it.
Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by kranke155 on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @05:33PM (#35446131)
This is a common fiction trope that’s never been demonstrated in reality as far as I know. Everyone uses the bank tellers example and ignores multiple reports showing the leading cause of de industrialisation in the US was automation, followed by “free trade”.

It’s all nonsense unless you show evidence, and the evidence points to the contrary. What we have is a move of society towards “service” jobs, but service jobs exist in two different spheres - high wage (IT) and low wage (Starbucks). Having lived in the UK under a so called post industrial society, de industrialisation did exactly what people like Vaclav Smil say it does - it creates a society with no middle class.

Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by rcarr on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @06:19PM (#35446602)
> Rust belt cities didn't transform with new kinds of jobs and industries. They just crumbled and fell apart.

The interesting part is that the artistic jobs are mainly in the tier 1 cities e.g New York, LA, London etc. I'm sure there's historical precedent for tier 1 cities having their industries undermined but it'll be interesting to see what happens considering these areas tend to suck up the most government spending (or London does at least in the UK).

Personally, I think the current generation of kids have got their hearts set on being content creators and they're going to be in for a rough ride. The next generation are probably going to grow up amidst the devastation and turn to high demand, high skill blue collar jobs in droves e.g construction, plumbing, electricians, engineers, nursing etc and with a bit of luck we might actually end up fixing some of the gargantuan problems we've got as a society such as the housing crisis. Kids with construction skills probably aren't going to be daunted buying dilapidated houses and making them liveable again or developing new ones.

Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by MattPalmer1086 on Wednesday April 05, 2023 @04:21AM (#35450999)
It's probably true in the long term, but not in any kind of time frame that matters to those displaced.
Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by rnk on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @02:30PM (#35444008)
Yeah, but how many people who write professionally will have their career prospects significantly reduced. Many fewer writers for press releases, real estate, general PR to reporter stuff. Just like there aren't many travel agents. That will be millions lost.
Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by shortrounddev on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @02:51PM (#35444277)
If I was faced with the prospect of losing my job as a software engineer and instead becoming a prompt "engineer", I would simply opt to drop out of the labor market entirely, or at least out of tech. At that point, there are no more interesting problems worth spending your time on. Just become a yak farmer or something and leave
Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by kranke155 on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @05:34PM (#35446139)
This is what I was told as an artist here when Stable Diffusion showed up.

Same reaction, to the incredulity of the HN crowd. “Why would you quit” etc

Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by yunwal on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @06:13PM (#35446530)
As an artist, are you not interested in other types of art besides photography and digital art?
Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by kranke155 on Wednesday April 05, 2023 @09:33AM (#35453879)
Writing. I hope that it will be the last thing we automate. As smart as we can make an LLM, can we get it to write original material as good as Ted Chiang? Feels like this would be an AGI-level problem.

What I'm definitely not interested in is telling a computer to make images for me.

Like I said at the time I trained to be a monk transcribing books. I'm not interested in becoming a printing press operator.

Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by nyokodo on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @06:03PM (#35446433)
> I would simply opt to drop out of the labor market entirely, or at least out of tech.

This is the problem for automation at the limit. Unless we generate an immensely powerful AI that sustains itself entirely then AI will destroy the economy and therefore itself.

Re:Goldman Sachs Predicts 300M Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded... by karmakurtisaani on Tuesday April 04, 2023 @04:34PM (#35445529)
Why quant devs specifically? Wouldn't that apply to any devs tho?