Ukraine is asking for those guns ... and one of many reason is that being under Russian leadership means becoming poorer and poorer.
Re:Finland becomes the 31st member of NATO
by red-iron-pine on Wednesday April 05, 2023 @09:11AM
(#35453560)
Which, apparently, matter.
See also: Georgia, Armenia vs. Azerbaijan, Belorussian & Kazakh internal protests and revolts, or Ukraine c. 2014.
Russian arms have been used on or by all of those countries. In the case of Armenia, support meant they kicked he shit out of the Azeris before... and not the case now, where Russian can't or won't help them, but the Turks are backing the Azeris.
Force of arms has made a big difference for all of the states around Russia. And not necessarily in a good way.
Amusingly, that status quo is enforced via the USA’s supposed overwhelming force of arms. Which in turn suggests your analysis is deeply deficient in its consideration of higher order effects.