Moldova for sure. Baltics or Poland highly likely, and that would mean a direct confrontation with NATO. The nuclear threats now are peanuts compared to what would happen then.

I've assumed reality where there's no "NATO expansionism" (as GP was complaining about US forging alliances), so Poland and entire post-Soviet block wouldn't be in the NATO at all and would be full-time enjoying "Ruski Mir".

Hard to find words to express how shitty that would be.