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Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by elil17 on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:30AM (#35261588)
Yesterday, Copilot could not write a program with SymPy, which is a library for doing symbolic math in Python. (e.g., it would consistently confuse symbols in equations with Python variables). Today it uses SymPy as well as it uses NumPy (occasional mistakes, but overall it has the right idea). Absolutely astounding.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by toomuchtodo on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:31AM (#35261596)
I don’t think people understand the hockey stick we’re on. Don’t focus too hard on the failings, look at the scaffolding being rapidly deployed that makes the iterative improvement process exceptionally tight.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by brookst on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:43AM (#35261790)
It’s the same with every paradigm shift.

“GUIs are pretty but slow. Ok, they’re faster but just glued on to CLI programs. Ok, they’re native but less information dense. Ok, that’s a good thing, but…”

“The internet is nice but you still have to go to the store/bank. Ok, you can shop/bank online but you still have to call airlines. Ok you can buy airline tickets but you still have to go to the library to research. Ok, you can research but you still have to drive in to work. Ok…”

Maybe it’s a half empty / half full thing, but there is some portion of the populace that can’t acknowledge the promise of anything until it is perfect and comprehensive.

And, yes, there’s another portion that can’t acknowledge gaps or flaws of the promise is sufficiently huge. But it’s the former that grinds my gears.

Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by scandox on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:27AM (#35262525)
Your overall point is reasonable, but to take your point about GUIs...we actually lost an awful lot moving from text based interfaces going to GUI. We got universal adoption and more or less zero training required...but we got very slow and inflexible interfaces.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by chaxor on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @02:25PM (#35265150)
Command line didn't vanish ... You can still use it. Approximately 90% of my work is done via TUI, so it's certainly not gone.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by scandox on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @05:56PM (#35267610)
I'm talking about people behind counters, people in stock rooms, people in all kinds of data entry and so on. The terminal did vanish from many places. We're not the market.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by aprinsen on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @07:47PM (#35268663)
I worked at a paint store in my teens (2010s) that operated a beautiful text only PoS system that had been built decades ago and it was incredible. So efficient, purpose built, nary a click.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by roguas on Friday March 24, 2023 @02:03PM (#35293127)
Yeah and owner would have to have SWE on payroll to continue having it working. It's why people migrated to a more general, albeit sometimes also more confusing apps/platforms.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by aprinsen on Friday March 24, 2023 @08:30PM (#35297643)
It was a chain (Sherwin Williams), so I assume they could afford an in house dev team.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by GeneralMaximus on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:53PM (#35270350)
I use tons of GUI apps with mostly a keyboard (or sometimes only a keyboard). For example, my Git client of choice is Tower, and I’m able to get all my work done without taking my hands off the keyboard. It took me a bit of time to get used to the shortcuts, but now I’m able to work off my muscle memory.

Well written GUI apps will always have good support for keyboard-only use. This is doubly true for apps that care deeply about accessibility, since some people have disabilities that make it hard for them to use a mouse or trackpad.

On the other hand, TUIs will never support non-Latin scripts properly, or have good support for screen readers, or be easily discoverable without a manual, or have uniform automation support using native automation APIs. In my view, CLIs are strictly inferior to GUIs unless you’re putting together data pipelines.

Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by darkwater on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:52AM (#35261948)
I'm speaking more generally but

> Maybe it’s a half empty / half full thing, but there is some portion of the populace that can’t acknowledge the promise of anything until it is perfect and comprehensive.

Probably because paradigm shifts or new ways of doing things come with a lot of trade-offs that can be seen only after the change has been absorbed more. Early adopters are usually blind to these issues (or decide to be blind at them), conservatives don't look at the improvements but think that there might be something not that good in the future by projecting past experiences.

Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by headcanon on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @02:16PM (#35265005)
I would assert that the "here are the current flaws" side is still necessary in the overall conversation, since they provide the necessary feedback that allows technology to improve. Similar to political debates influencing the Overton window of a population, I see the "future promise" vs "current flaws" as a human algorithm realizing itself. The debate never ends, but the "mean" value keeps moving as technology progresses. As a "future promise" person myself I used to be annoyed by the "current flaws" side as well until I started seeing things through this lens.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by agent281 on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:50AM (#35261922)
I'm mostly curious how far the hockey stick will go up. Eventually most things level off.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by wfeefwfwe on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:21AM (#35262411)
this
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by throwaway4aday on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:55AM (#35263030)
Considering this hockey stick is in the field that is in the business of making hockey sticks it could go pretty far. A hockey stick maximizer if you will.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by substation13 on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @12:34PM (#35263593)
This is the big question isn't it. With self driving cars we have been on the final 20% for what seems like forever.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by elil17 on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @03:55PM (#35266303)
Big difference here is that it becomes more useful as it gets better. Self driving cars aren't useful until they reach a certain threshold.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by substation13 on Thursday March 23, 2023 @06:16AM (#35272463)
I think there is a feedback loop with self-driving cars.

More self-driving cars on the road -> more driving data for that company -> better self driving cars

Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by xiphias2 on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:54PM (#35269962)
We are seeing continuous improvements in image and video generation / understanding every year. It was just probably too naive to think that self driving can work well without getting to human level video understanding (which is still not AGI).

But when we have that, it’s hard to believe that self driving won’t work.

Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by danenania on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @01:02PM (#35263967)
To me the key issue are these 'hallucinations'--mistakes that seem plausible but are completely made up, like API endpoints that would be super useful except for the small problem that they don't exist. GPT4 is better than GPT3 on these but it still produces a lot of them.

The question is whether these are somehow inherent to the LLM approach or whether scaling up and continued improvements can eventually get rid of them.

They are the main barrier at this point between a very useful tool, but one that still needs to have all its output carefully checked by humans when it comes to anything important, and a true autonomous agent that can be given full tasks to do on its own.

Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by elil17 on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @03:56PM (#35266317)
It seems pretty clear to me that you could do some more RL to enforce truth-telling/admitting when it does not know - it would just be much more labor intensive compared to the RLHF they have already done because fact checking is difficult.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by danenania on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @04:17PM (#35266538)
I'd imagine they've already been doing lots of RL in this direction, which explains the improvements in GPT4, but it's still an issue. Maybe they can eventually eliminate hallucinations completely, but I could also imagine that it will end up being difficult to do that without lessening its creativity across the board. Perhaps making things up is fundamental to how LLMs work and trying to stop it from doing that will kill the magic. I'm not an AI researcher so I really have no idea--just speculating.

I'm not at all trying to downplay the power or significance of LLMs, btw, in case that's why I'm getting downvoted... I'm using copilot/GPT4 every day and they are massive productivity boosters. But currently I see them as tools for producing rough drafts that need to be revised and checked over. If they can't solve hallucinations, LLMs will stay in this lane, which is still incredible, amazing, and useful, but won't necessarily get us to the AI endgame that the hype is predicting.

Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by gunshai on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:38AM (#35261726)
I used sympy the other day for the first time. I was blown away by that library I wish I had known about this years ago.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by barrenko on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:31AM (#35261599)
They were probably apprehensive beforehand, and now just unleashed it on everything.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by vintermann on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:45AM (#35261825)
Yes, I feel like it is much better than HN has given it credit for in earlier discussions. But that may be influenced by the fact that I only started using it relatively recently; I've probably mostly seen it at its best.

Also, I have no illusions about how language models work. I notice that the sloppier the code I'm editing, the worse suggestions (and dumber comments) it suggests. If I start writing a comment and copilot immediately suggests "TODO: delete this", that's a better indicator of poor code health than any metric I know about. It's not a magic wand, but it can be extremely useful if you use it sensibly.

Then again, you can just decide to forget how it works and ask it questions directly in comments:

    // Hey GPT3, write me a poem
    // ANSWER: 
It's not sensible, but it's great fun.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by Kiro on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:47AM (#35261860)
You're being too kind on the HN crowd. We're usually extremely pessimistic for no good reason and useless at predicting things. It seems like we just love to hate on stuff.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by acdha on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:57AM (#35262041)
People here love hot takes, especially if it stakes out a contrarian position as the smart one. Criticizing the big players is just too easy to do that with since it doesn’t require you to build an alternative and is often right in some aspect so you can get validation.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by kreas on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:58AM (#35262062)
I would say this about most developers not just HN. It took years for me to break that mindset.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by vintermann on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:54AM (#35261988)
If you think that you should see what Slashdot is like these days, lol.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by qgin on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @01:25PM (#35264261)
It's definitely not considered high status here to be positive about anything
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by retrocryptid on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:48AM (#35261873)
So it's on par with a junior software engineer?
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by elil17 on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:55AM (#35262003)
No, I don't think it's comparable to a junior engineer. It works best for pretty short snippets of code. It also can't decide when to run the program and how to interpret/make changes based on the results.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by mynameisvlad on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:21AM (#35262402)
So… a junior developer?

I (mostly) kid but some seniors I know struggle at those things.

Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by elil17 on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:33AM (#35262647)
I mean I get what you're saying. But it doesn't just struggle with those things - they aren't even the sort of things it can do.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by retrocryptid on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:59AM (#35263088)
Yes. Of all the comments I've made on HN, that one most deserves to be down-voted. Jr. Devs I know are motivated and reasonably intelligent.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by steve_adams_86 on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @01:39PM (#35264464)
> It also can't decide when to run the program and how to interpret/make changes based on the results.

Not quite, but a bit of plumbing can get you closer. Not human using a computer close, but interestingly closer nonetheless.

I've been trying to accomplish something akin to this by having a program monitor and alter another program within a virtual machine, using GPT-generated solutions to error traces to correct bugs in the sand boxed program.

It watches the program to see when an error occurs, feeds the error to GPT with pertinent code, then tries to splice in the solution.

It kind of works. I don't think we're going to see human-levels of success from this in the immediate future, but I was able to write a simple event-based system which alters a program to resolve simple bugs. It even does it on a different git branch, and there is some stubbed out code and prompts for generating tests. In my manual testing, this actually worked too. If the tests passed I was going to have it push the change set and create a PR explaining the changes, tests, etc.

I doubt I'll continue now that Copilot is doing this already. My point though is that with the right configuration, the right data and prompts, and a system orchestrating the start/stop/test patterns based on the state of the sandboxed program, you can begin to achieve something akin to an inexperienced person solving bugs.

Sometimes it does a terrible job and other times it kind of falls over itself. But we're already leaps and bounds ahead of previous systems, and I just cobbled this together with what's possible via OpenAI's API.

The crazy part is that there are so many possible layers. Like say we get our initial solution and we verify that it works. Well, now we can have a system which optimizes the implementation. Like a PR buddy that observes the implementation and determines: should this test be appended to an existing suite of tests? Can the test case simply be added to an existing table-driven test? How can we streamline this patch to avoid an endless stream of additional files and tests to maintain? I think that's actually tractable already. While the success rate won't be 100% today, it'll clearly only improve.

Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by vintermann on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @10:57AM (#35262045)
Sure. One that never gets tired, never gets frustrated, always does his best, and has a pause button.
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by geraneum on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @11:34AM (#35262668)
This applies to managers and many founders too. I imagine it's gonna affect the startup scene more than people expect and the number of current model of startups where you build a custom software solution for a problem may also fall. It applies to all white collar workers. This is the goal of a corporation like Microsoft to develop such a system (to consolidate those added values), and it will happen one day as it happened with physical labor. Although we are not quite there yet. It might be far or not. Who knows?
Re:GitHub Copilot X: The AI-powered developer experience by DeathArrow on Wednesday March 22, 2023 @06:22PM (#35267847)
They automatically switched Copilot to GPT 4 without you enrolling in the limited access list?