You are mixing up grammatical skills with logical thinking skills.

Turns out, poetry, rythme, rap, are all low level skills, which the AI easily conquer. To master them, you only need to master language, but not world knowledge.

Turns out, writing novels is the hardest thing for LLMs. GPT-4 still absolutely sucks at writing interesting stories. Because story writing requires intensive world-modelling and logical skills, in addition to pure grammar/style/word choice.

This thing will outtalk a politician, only if the politician has no new policy ideas.

Our last president was all about talking and real light on policy platforms, so this is not reassuring.

Our current one is deeply thoughtful. Such a contrast. A true statesman.

By comparison? Yes. infinitely so.

Composing that kind of lyrics requires world knowledge. Take the line "But your verse was plain, like unbuttered toast." It requires understanding of what makes a good verse and what makes a good toast.

"You are engaged in a political debate. Your name is <POLITICIAN>. You are assertive but polite and concise in your responses. A summary of your policy platform follows: <PLATFORM>

It's your opponent's turn, and they state: <TEXT TO SPEECH>

You reply: "

Political debates are a lot closer to rap battles, than to a math conference. That's because the listeners hatdly know any logic at all.

I'm sure GPT can write novels. Just ask it to outline the list of chapters with brief summaries, then ask it to expand each chapter.

It can write novels... Like a middle schooler can.

It has excellent style and tone, but its incapable of creating the most important elements. Motivation, suspense, surprise. The things that actually drive people to read an novel. Therefore its novels read like parodies, like its literally trying to be the most cliched story imaginable.

To do so, the AI needs to actually understand character motivations. It also needs a hidden world-state that it simulates, which is different from surface text it outputs.

A novel writing AI is probably an AGI. I've tried writing stories since GPT-2, but there hasn't been much of an advancement in this area. Unlike the explosive improvements in other capabilities.

Are you taking the context window size into consideration? And are you basing this opinion on GPT-3.5 OR 4? ChatGPT does tend to write very flat and full of clichés, but in my experience GPT-4 is far more original and expressive.

> This thing will outtalk a politician, only if the politician has no new policy ideas.

What political debates have you been watching? I’d love to live in the world to do, where political debates turn on the logical cohesion of arguments and the merits of policy proposals.

This. The vast majority of politicians will just repeat their talking points, which were honed by the party or countless stump speeches. There are only a few who are quick witted enough to deviate from that. And very few (most often when they are not important yet) to engage in wonky policy discussions. And conceding a point never happens.

> Turns out, poetry, rythme, rap, are all low level skills, which the AI easily conquer

10 years ago AIs pretty much struggled to make a coherent sentence. As of 2023 this stuff is "easy", but what else will be easy in 2033?

Don't assume that because things have been improving fast that they will keep improving at the same rate. In an optimisation problem you might think you're doing a lot of progress but you might get to the end of the curve and realise you've been going down a local minima.

It's very difficult to say how much more will these things improve!

Have you ever seen a political debate? If you think they're won on policy I've got some depressing news for you