part of the problem is local hiring limits, maybe there are some candidates in the US who are qualified, but they dont want to move to seattle/bay area/ny - and are looking for full remote - and compete with global talent for these jobs

There's also the flip side of tech hub candidate formerly of a big tech company looking for remote job and the company out out of {landlocked state} isn't going to pay several multiples of what a local candidate would be looking for.

I think you're both being a little unrealistic. There are just not going to be many of either of those kinds of jobs coming open in the near future. At least not enough to absorb all those affected by layoffs. Not only that, but even when they do start hiring again, businesses will still find ways to get H1B's instead domestic employees if they feel H1B's are something their business model necessitates.

I think when people are planning for the future, they need to be realistic about what actually may happen rather than hoping for their preferred ideological outcome to happen. Don't write yourself off from ever getting a job, but at the same time understand that the job market of the medium term future will probably look radically different from the job market of the past. Very little of it will have anything to do with location. In fact, most jobs will probably be in the same places they've always been, it's just likely you won't get paid as much to do them. There will be more people vying for them. And they won't be quite as secure as they used to be.

Global talent isn't constrained by US laws about IP, NDAs, non-competes, and taxes.

Nor are they on the same timezones.

Nor are they comparatively cheap to fly out, if needed.

There is a big reason why offshoring has been tilting more and more to Mexico City... or Alabama.

Probably the usual ways: lower salaries and claim there continues to be a shortage.

> I also wonder how this will shake out for people on H1B visas. When there are 10 qualified US citizens for every (US-based) job available, it's going to be a hard sell that they're hiring somebody with a special skillset that can't be found locally.

Keep in mind that If I want to hire:

A smart graduate from EPFL, Polytechnique or ETH Zurich who interned at CERN and has contributed to the Linux kernel for a software engineering job at a unicorn startup OR

A grad from a second tier "technical college" in India with a visa refusal rate of ~90% for a job doing manual UI testing and QA for a body shop [0]

my only path forward is H1! They'll both be listed as "computer related occupations" and apply for the same visa in the same quota. Does that make any sense to anyone?

Of course, my odds of getting a lottery spot for the former are dramatically lower, since we all know body shops and consulting firms won't hesitate to file 4-5 applications per seat they plan to fill out (so one can hopefully get a spot in the lottery and not get any RFE).

[0] https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/silicon-valleys-body-s...

The solution is simple. Make the application a silent auction. Unfortunately, any mention of reforming this nonsense is met with 'xenophobic' and 'racist' accusations.

I completely agree.

The legitimate users of the H1B program are really looking for specialized skills and hard-to-find talent. Especially for software, it's not even cheaper to hire qualified candidates from abroad...

Once a company does a round of layoffs, it freezes their ability to hire H1B candidates for (IIRC) 6 months after the WARN period ends. With the previous round, Amazon employees in India were expecting to see a possible move in August. With this round, I don’t think there will be any for 2023.