News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by arnvald on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:15AM (#35149741)
The most intuitive and simple explanation that worked for me is:

* if on the 1st try you choose the correct box (33% chance), then the one you can switch to will be wrong

* if on the 1st try you choose the wrong box (66% chance), then the one you can switch to will be correct one

therefore your goal is to pick the wrong box on the 1st try and then switch, and you have 66% chance to do it

Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by kasperni on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:26AM (#35149829)
I think their explanation is a lot easier to understand

When we pick the original box, we know that the probability that the keys will be in there is 1/3. The probability that the keys will not be in the box you originally chose is 1 - 1/3 = 2/3. Just from this knowledge alone, you could decide that you will always switch, since the probability that the other boxes have the keys is 2/3.

Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by jasode on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:42AM (#35149971)
>= 2/3. Just from this knowledge alone, you could decide that you will always switch, since the probability that the other boxes have the keys is 2/3.

Your sentence the particular way you worded it is not the correct mathematical model.

The player does not get to switch to BOTH OF THE OTHER 2 boxes as an alternative to just the 1st box. Therefore the 2/3rd probability doesn't apply.

Where the non-intuitive 2/3rds probability becomes the answer instead of 50/50 is the host's perfect knowledge of always choosing the door without the car.

Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by kasperni on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @08:38AM (#35150498)
> Your sentence the particular way you worded it is not the correct mathematical model.

It wasn't really my sentence I just quoted the article. Nonetheless I disagree with you. The probability that the other boxes have the key is 2/3 and that is all that really matters. Opening a door doesn't change anything.

Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by basch on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @11:04AM (#35152641)
You do get to switch to both other doors. One of the two remaining doors is a goat, and it is opened for you. Another way to phrase that is getting to pick both doors and the goat doesnt count against you.

The Monty Hall problem distills to simply "would you like one or two doors, (if the prize is behind any door in the set you pick you win.)"

Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by qumpis on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:17AM (#35149753)
Or to just imagine a 1000 boxes with the same problem formulation
Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by wanderingstan on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:29AM (#35149862)
This was the one that worked when explaining it to my friends.

It gives a mental image of the host opening 998 boxes, leaving only your selected box and one other. From here it’s easier to see that there must be something special about that one box the host left un-opened!

(Though even then there were people who clung to the “2 boxes means 1-in-2 chance” fallacy, failing to see that the host has revealed information.)

Edit: an other version was to change the hosts proposal: what if he let you choose one box, and then said he would let you switch to having whatever was in the other 999 boxes? Of course you would switch! The crux is understanding that this offer is actually the same as in the first proposal, since the host is not opening the boxes at random.

Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by charlieflowers on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @11:22AM (#35152959)
To me, THAT is the most powerful intuitive description.
Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by jstx1 on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:25AM (#35149817)
This doesn't do anything for me.

(I understand the Monty Hall problem, I just don't see how changing the number of doors makes a difference to anyone's intuition.)

Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by brigandish on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:35AM (#35149912)
It's because it makes the initial choice so increasingly unlikely (increasing with the number of doors) to be correct that when the doors are taken away and you're left with only two, one of which must be right, it means that the other door is incredibly likely to be the right one.
Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by jstx1 on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:50AM (#35150037)
> It's because it makes the initial choice so increasingly unlikely

But you still need to conivnce people that the one remaining unopened door is more likely than the door you originally selected. They were both unlikely to begin with, ramping up the number of doors doesn't explaing why one of them should be preferred.

Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by brigandish on Thursday March 16, 2023 @06:56AM (#35180343)
There are 1000 doors. You choose 1. Anyone knows it's incredibly unlikely that the correct one is chosen first time.

Now 998 doors are removed. There is 1 door from the others and the door you choose. Given that your choice is almost certainly wrong, and that your opponent couldn't remove the correct door from amongst the 998, that means the other door is the correct one.

Is that convincing enough?

Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by coldtea on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:34AM (#35149895)
Because a 99/100 chance is much better than 2/3 to drive the point home...
Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by curiousgal on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:35AM (#35149910)
Imagine there are 999 boxes with nothing in them and one box with the keys. After picking a box, the hosts opens 998 empty boxes. Would you still stick with your initial choice?
Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by jstx1 on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:39AM (#35149940)
I would change my choice because I understand the problem. But I would also change my choice in the scenario with 3 boxes. I'm not arguing with the conclusion, what I don't understand is the people who have their mind changed by the argument.
Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by curiousgal on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @12:35PM (#35154201)
> the remaining unopened box is different from the box your picked originally.

Because you now know that every other box is empty. So by process of elimination you know that your box and the remaining one are different.

Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by __s on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @08:02AM (#35150144)
I've often found it easier to understand things intuitively by putting an idea to the slippery slope test. If such & such were true, imagine changing some parameters to an extreme, how absurd does it become? For monotonic functions it's useful
Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by yesseri on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:20AM (#35149773)
And the key thing here is that all boxes except two gets removed, not only one.
Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by oleganza on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:23AM (#35149795)
That was a new spin to the explanation that I didn't think of before.
Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by justatdotin on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:45AM (#35149992)
yes, that's how I got it