How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever

Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by jstx1 on Tuesday March 14, 2023 @07:50AM (#35150037)

> It's because it makes the initial choice so increasingly unlikely

But you still need to conivnce people that the one remaining unopened door is more likely than the door you originally selected. They were both unlikely to begin with, ramping up the number of doors doesn't explaing why one of them should be preferred.

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Re:How to explain the Monty Hall problem to a disbeliever by brigandish on Thursday March 16, 2023 @06:56AM (#35180343)

There are 1000 doors. You choose 1. Anyone knows it's incredibly unlikely that the correct one is chosen first time.

Now 998 doors are removed. There is 1 door from the others and the door you choose. Given that your choice is almost certainly wrong, and that your opponent couldn't remove the correct door from amongst the 998, that means the other door is the correct one.

Is that convincing enough?

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