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A comment on Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Agency Now Says. Parent comment

Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by kashunstva on Sunday February 26, 2023 @03:57PM (#34949355)
Or there aren't objective standards for what "low, medium, and high confidence" actually mean, thereby allowing one agency to look at the evidence and say it's of low confidence and another to look at the same data and say it's moderate confidence.
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Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by Bjartr on Sunday February 26, 2023 @04:25PM (#34949636)
Interestingly, the CIA has published a paper on exactly this subject:

Words of Estimative Probability (PDF) https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/studies-in-intelligence/ar...

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Re:Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Ag... by cameldrv on Sunday February 26, 2023 @05:23PM (#34950219)
Moderate and Low are Words of Analytic Confidence [1]. This has more to do with the quality of the sourcing than a numeric probability number.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analytic_confidence

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