Washington state eliminated smog testing a couple years ago. I'm not sure how big the smog test station operator's lobby is, and if the state determines that having smog testing is a net drain on the budget, they'll eventually eliminate it. Whether they say "it's too expensive for us to run", "cars are way cleaner these days", or "we're doing this for poor people" remains to be seen.

Now, I don't know if California makes or loses money on smog testing (does the state get a cut?), but I'm still guessing it's going to go away at some point before too long.