Getting to the point where the disease is really gone is not an easy state to reach. Polio has been eradicated, yet we have small, latent pockets pop up every now and then. London in 2022, for instance: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61900915

I'm all for getting rid of useless things, but the long tail for diseases appears to be extremely long and resilient.

Not just cost, but also personal risk. Every injection (or drug) you put into your body carries a risk with it, especially a vaccine. People should get vaccinated, but pretending there is 0 risk associated with it just causes more antivaxxers IMO. And don't tell me that 0.001% chance is the same as 0% chance; for the one in 100k people injured by a vaccine, I can assure you it's not the same...

is there any difference in outcome between those two numbers? like are you gonna do one thing if it's 0% and another thing if it's 0.001%? no.

I think for most people it isn't, but only if you tell them the truth. If you gaslight them and say they are 100% safe, then you will get a much higher percentage of people losing trust and not taking the vaccine anymore.

Which is why every vaccine you get comes with a complementary documentation packet with several pages describing the possible known and unknown complications, things you should look out for, reasons you maybe want to turn this vaccine down, talk to your doctor, and try again later.

Like, why else are you required to sit around for twenty minutes after you get it?

look, like, vaccines are basically one of the greatest accomplishments of humankind, this assertion is pretty obvious from any reasonable review of the relevant science and/or facts of the stuff, and so it's difficult to take seriously anyone who comes to a different conclusion

like, if someone would believe you if you told them a vaccine is 99.9% safe, but would refuse to take that vaccine if you told them it was 100% safe? that person is not a rational actor, I'm not sure that they're anyone worth worrying about

Exactly. And it's higher than 4 nines, it's 5-6 nines.

I feel like only fringes of society would refuse the vaccine at that point. But what we do is lie and say it's 100%, losing all trust and making more antivaxxers in the process. The original ones that didn't want it at 5 nines wouldn't get it anyway, you're not winning them over by lying.

nobody has ever said vaccines are 100% whatever

It's basic psychology though. If I told you that my software was 100% magically secure against any and all attacks, vs this other vendor, who has an itemized list of things their product does, who are you going to think is blowing smoke up your ass?

Polio isn't eliminated though. Measles especially is nuts to skip. We don't vaccinate for smallpox because it has been eliminated.

And if you're in the military you do get vaccinated for smallpox still.

I'm guessing that's specifically to deal with the possibility of bio-warfare?

Correct

Yes, that's the point. But you continue on until the disease is eradicated, not just until a person's individual anecdote is that they don't know of anyone who has had it recently. That's the point when vaccination can safely cease.

The problem is that second step is EXTREMELY difficult to conduct and confirm. Given that and the extremely low risk of issues with vaccinations why risk it. We thought we were close with polio but there's been some recent back sliding on that front even here in the US with some weakened versions of the virus successfully infecting unvaccinated people.