Not sure here, but in my experience no backfill hires for voluntary leavers is a pretty good warning.
Other companies stopped backfilling a while ago but doesn't mean they plan on laying people off (and you can look at 2008-2010 for reference to see that some companies didn't backfill but didn't have layoffs). Not over-growing and then shrinking through attrition is one way to rightsize a company in tougher times.
Absolutely - but absent corporate communications saying "Everything is great" or "OMG we're doomed.", it's a very relevant data point.
Stock went from 350 to 250.
Re:Microsoft Lays Off 10k (5%) Workers
by mandeepj on Wednesday January 18, 2023 @01:38PM
(#34430912)
> Stock went from 350 to 250
It went to 350 from 30
Re:Microsoft Lays Off 10k (5%) Workers
by thr0w4w4ymsft on Wednesday January 18, 2023 @11:06AM
(#34428446)
People asking VPs about layoffs in public AMAs and getting answers to the effect of "it's our responsibility to make sure that we're right-sized for the upcoming year."
Cost cutting. Move to floating desk and reduction in building space. There were few more things. But the shift to floating seats was a big indicator that serious cost cutting is happening. And everyone guessed that layoffs are next.
I am based in India. US folks would have seen different signs
What did the hints look like?