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A comment on The quiz Daniel Kahneman wants you to fail. Parent comment

Re:The quiz Daniel Kahneman wants you to fail by screwt on Friday January 06, 2012 @05:27AM (#3432764)
> This isn't bayesian, this is just counting boxes on a permutation table.

It's the same thing. Bayes' theorem allows you to shortcut straight to the answer without having to draw out a full probability tree / permutation table. But the underlying math is the same - in each case you have a different probability of B given A, versus B given (not A).

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Re:The quiz Daniel Kahneman wants you to fail by wizzard on Friday January 06, 2012 @10:24AM (#3433603)
Personally I wouldn't call it "Bayesian" so much as just "a conditional probability." The question doesn't ask what the probability is that a randomly selected participant is an engineer, it asks what the probability is that a participant is an engineer given that he has "typical" engineer-like traits.

But then yes, ideally you could use Bayes' Rule to find that probability.

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