I think you're probably underestimating how many people are going to care about Mastodon.

I think we should average out what you are both estimating.

This. Reminds me of [1]. Although I never finished reading it.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

I think you could be underestimating it. I’d guess there’s a simmering level of interest among a lot of people, especially those more conscious of moving away from big tech / corporate platforms. FWIW, this tipped me over the edge into setting up a Mastodon account — it was very painless. We’ll see whether I actually start using Mastodon, but it’s a start.

They have grown from 300K monthly active users to 2.5M in December. Nothing compared to social networks at large, crazy numbers compared to the omg.lol user base.