Re:Rant: Year of Linux on the Desktop (2022)
by pessimizer on Sunday January 01, 2023 @12:49PM
(#34208671)
> You ask a normie "what's your opinion of Windows 10?" and they'll have one, good or bad. You ask a normie what their opinion of Linux is and most of them won't even know the word, let alone have one. That's why it isn't and may never be "the year of Linux on the desktop."
The fact that the vast majority of consumers don't have any awareness at all that Linux is a simple, widely-available desktop is evidence of the opposite: that the public hasn't decided against Linux, and that the sky is the limit for growth.
i.e. If electric cars had 2% of the market, and 90% of people hadn't even heard of electric cars, the first approximation of the potential market for electric cars as they are is 20%. You'd refine that based on comparing characteristics of the 10% who had heard of them to the 90% who hadn't, but 20% is good enough for a napkin.
With 1) the slow decline in quality and growth of data mining and ads in Windows and MacOS, 2) the ending of Moore's Law, meaning that the development of at least single-threaded software is slower than it used to be, allowing FOSS to catch up where it is behind, 3) greater compatibility and shared software than ever between Windows, MacOS, and Linux through various subsystems, VMs and containers, and 4) the movement of a lot of software to the web, I believe that desktop Linux could take over at any time (or never.)
Windows could just pull another Vista at the same time Apple disables some functionality as a business strategy. Or they could both get cancelled due to major personalities associated with the brands also being associated with politics and the media; Bill Gates obviously, but Jobs' widow owns the Atlantic. Both, neither, or anything else could happen while the Linux desktop was in really good shape and compatible with most of the software that people use.
The fact that the vast majority of consumers don't have any awareness at all that Linux is a simple, widely-available desktop is evidence of the opposite: that the public hasn't decided against Linux, and that the sky is the limit for growth.
i.e. If electric cars had 2% of the market, and 90% of people hadn't even heard of electric cars, the first approximation of the potential market for electric cars as they are is 20%. You'd refine that based on comparing characteristics of the 10% who had heard of them to the 90% who hadn't, but 20% is good enough for a napkin.
With 1) the slow decline in quality and growth of data mining and ads in Windows and MacOS, 2) the ending of Moore's Law, meaning that the development of at least single-threaded software is slower than it used to be, allowing FOSS to catch up where it is behind, 3) greater compatibility and shared software than ever between Windows, MacOS, and Linux through various subsystems, VMs and containers, and 4) the movement of a lot of software to the web, I believe that desktop Linux could take over at any time (or never.)
Windows could just pull another Vista at the same time Apple disables some functionality as a business strategy. Or they could both get cancelled due to major personalities associated with the brands also being associated with politics and the media; Bill Gates obviously, but Jobs' widow owns the Atlantic. Both, neither, or anything else could happen while the Linux desktop was in really good shape and compatible with most of the software that people use.