News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Thursday December 29, 2022 @10:23PM (#34181420)
> The ultra-rich therefore spend relatively small shares of their income on goods and services that directly provide jobs and incomes to others, instead accumulating stocks, bonds, art, trophy real estate, and other assets.

Investing in stocks does provide jobs and income to others. When you buy stocks, the money goes to finance the business.

When you buy art, the money goes to the artist.

And so on.

Consider if an artists creates a painting, and sells it to a rich dude for $100,000. Who is harmed by this? I don't understand all the "inequality is bad" axioms that people seem to accept uncritically.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by 0xEFF on Thursday December 29, 2022 @10:28PM (#34181443)
Most assets, both stocks and fine art, are bought and sold between relatively rich people not from the person or company who originally issued the asset.

Consider a house, the builder sells it once, but it gets bought and sold on average every 7 years subsequently.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Thursday December 29, 2022 @10:49PM (#34181565)
Let's say Richie Rich buys a painting from Willy Wealthy for $100,000. Now Willy has an extra $100,000. What's he going to do with it?

There's an entire industry of artists making art to sell to the Richie Riches and Willy Wealthies of the world, and this has been going on since antiquity. Why do you think all that medieval Italian art was created? It was rich Italians patronizing the artists.

The same with real estate. In the meantime, while someone owns a house, they gotta pay others for insurance, repairs, maintenance, taxes, etc. Even buying the house will cost you 6% going to the starving real estate agent. Owning a house is very expensive, not counting the purchase price.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by nerdponx on Thursday December 29, 2022 @11:25PM (#34181779)
The money does flow back into the economy, but it's extremely diluted in that the surplus obtained by any individual "downstream" of great wealth is small.

Meanwhile, the people spending all that money are the same people setting things up to ensure that surplus flows back to... themselves. So the wealthy people spend money, the people who manufacture their stuff and provide their services get as little surplus as possible without inciting them to riot, and the remainder goes right back to some other wealthy person, and then the process repeats.

There's no guarantee that surplus/welfare/utility flows along with the money, and it should be obvious to any observer that it definitely does not in practice.

The tired old argument that wealth accumulation doesn't really exist because the money all eventually goes "back into the economy" has always been an insulting hand-wave that is neither a principled model nor in agreement with basic facts about the economy.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Friday December 30, 2022 @12:17AM (#34182078)
What is missing from your comment is the wealthy get that way by creating wealth, not by taking it from others. (This is why the economy grows - wealth creation.)

The government, on the other hand, gets money by taking it.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by dragonwriter on Friday December 30, 2022 @12:27AM (#34182126)
> What is missing from your comment is the wealthy get that way by creating wealth, not by taking it from others.

Its missing, because it is mostly not true.

The wealthy predominantly get wealthy by getting other people to create wealth, and taking it from them via contracts relying on imbalances of power and econonic coercion (in a fairly benign modern capitalist system; is less benign, less modern, emerging (or pre-) capitalist systems, the coercion is often jist direct threat or application of force rather than the economic coercion of the inherent precariousness of the working class in capitalist society.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Friday December 30, 2022 @12:33AM (#34182148)
Well, that's definitely the Marxist point of view of things.

Everybody in a business is creating the wealth of the business, and they get their share of the created wealth in the form of pay and benefits. Unsurprisingly, their compensation is in proportion to the value they add (i.e. the wealth their contributions create).

It is not a system based on forcing anyone. The cooperation is voluntary, with their compensation set by supply+demand.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by aaomidi on Friday December 30, 2022 @01:35AM (#34182506)
When choice for one side is hunger vs giving up labor, and the other side is a tiny bit more profit, or a tiny bit less profit - that’s not a choice.

Power imbalance does not make for informed consent.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Friday December 30, 2022 @02:36AM (#34182815)
If you were right, everyone would be working for minimum wage.

But they aren't. Only 1.5% work for minimum wage.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by lostdog on Friday December 30, 2022 @03:52AM (#34183245)
Let's look at the top 0.1%. An Amazon Senior SWE makes 1% and minimum wage in CA is 0.1% of the $35,000,000 per year that someone in the top 0.01% makes.

1/100 and 1/1000 is different, but the difference isn't that big.

Your overall point didn't make any sense though. "Lots of people don't earn minimum wage" doesn't mean that there isn't any power balance.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Friday December 30, 2022 @01:09PM (#34187869)
A senior engineer can be worth a lot more than $35M. Even just shaving 1% off the time that the server software consumes are worth many millions of dollars to the server company. The server companies compete for those people, so they get paid lots of money.

There is no power imbalance. If a worker produces a lot more value than he costs, he simply goes to another company that bids higher for him.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by aaomidi on Friday December 30, 2022 @03:16PM (#34189520)
I'm sure just on this thread you'll find a ton of engineers who have saved their company millions of dollars, but they're still paid the generic wage everyone else is.
Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by aaomidi on Friday December 30, 2022 @10:21AM (#34185802)
I’m not claiming market forces don’t exist. I’m just stating that earning wages is a completely different mindset than “some profit” vs “some more profit”.

People who don’t work for minimum wage are still facing the same basic constraint.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by qwytw on Friday December 30, 2022 @03:41AM (#34183182)
> Everybody in a business is creating the wealth of the business

That's clearly not true. It's just ussually very hard to quantify how much wealth every individual is creating and it becomes even harder as you go up the chain of hierarchy.

> Unsurprisingly, their compensation is in proportion to the value they add

Well... that's a strong statement and generally incorrect, at best their compensation if bounded by the value they add (not that it's easy to measure in most roles). Supply+demand (as you said) is what determines compensation in 95%+ of all cases.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Friday December 30, 2022 @01:06PM (#34187822)
The job of a cost accountant is to quantify these things. If the business gets it wrong, then the business does poorly or even goes out of business.

Supply+Demand certainly does determine employee compensation. But consider that there is no demand for workers who would cost more than the value they add. If the worker was producing far more value than he was paid, then the worker will be enticed away by some other business offering him more money.

So, you can see how S+D nudges employee compensation towards being paid according to what value they produce.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by qwytw on Friday December 30, 2022 @04:58PM (#34190587)
> But consider that there is no demand for workers who would cost more than the value they add

In general yes. But as as some of the venture capital funded growth companies have shown us in recent years these values can stay detached for quite a while.

But yeah over longterm I'd you to be mostly right.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by nerdponx on Friday December 30, 2022 @09:04PM (#34192672)
> What is missing from your comment is the wealthy get that way by creating wealth, not by taking it from others. (This is why the economy grows - wealth creation.)

Wealthy people accumulate wealth by many means. Creating wealth is only one of those means. Nor is wealth creation incompatible with the model I described.

> The government, on the other hand, gets money by taking it.

Who said anything about the government?

But if you want to argue that point, the government may create wealth just like any private individual or enterprise. In fact, it does create quite a lot of wealth, in the form of public services and overcoming various incentive problems of private industry operating in free markets.

Of course, governments do levy taxes in order to fund their activities. But you can't seriously argue that tax revenue is "taken" from the economy and also argue that wealth accumulation does not exist because wealthy individuals' money is not "taken" from the economy.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by gnicholas on Thursday December 29, 2022 @10:53PM (#34181593)
When houses are sold, realtors get a percentage of the gross sale price (not just the gain), staging companies are brought in, painters and handymen are hired, and title companies, mortgage lenders, and assessors all get work. The local government also gets paid, in the form of transfer taxes.

These don't apply to all big ticket items, but since you mentioned houses, I thought I'd flesh out the picture on who benefits from buying/selling activity.

It's worth noting that all of these people get paid, regardless of whether the home seller made money or lost money on the home (or how much). So in a strong market, they will get a small share of the gains. But in a down market, the seller may make nothing, while these service providers all get paid.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Thursday December 29, 2022 @11:01PM (#34181646)
Buying existing art means paying vig to the auction houses, appraisers, curators, restorers, insurers, and security people.
Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by wfleming on Thursday December 29, 2022 @10:32PM (#34181465)
> When you buy stocks, the money goes to finance the business.

Only if you’re buying directly from the business, which you’re usually not. Usually you’re just buying from another shareholder (could be another individual, a mutual fund, a hedge fund, whatever).

The proceeds may indeed end up filtering into the rest of the economy (I may sell you the stock to pay my mortgage, the hedge fund pays their traders), but the money doesn’t fund the business of the traded company.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Thursday December 29, 2022 @10:51PM (#34181582)
If you cannot sell your founders shares, they're worthless. Companies issue more stock to sell and raise capital all the time.

> the money doesn’t fund the business of the traded company.

Not directly, but indirectly it does. It makes the stocks valuable so the company can create shares and people will buy them. You know, like those stock options employees get.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by wfleming on Thursday December 29, 2022 @11:46PM (#34181899)
> Companies issue more stock to sell and raise capital all the time.

Sure, but that’s still a small fraction of most trades most of the time. When companies sell stock (long after their IPO) the sales kind of have to be dripped out as a small percentage of the trading volume of the stock or it would negatively affect the price (more than considered acceptable). If a company or its insiders are most of the sellers by volume (again, if a company has been public a while), that’s a bad sign for the company.

> Not directly, but indirectly it does.

Also yes, but I would quibble that this is moving the goal posts from your original statement :). “The money goes to finance the business” seemed like a pretty direct declarative statement that didn’t touch on the nuance of “buying stock -> pushes price up -> makes debt cheaper for company/makes further stock sales attractive”.

I get the point you’re making and don’t entirely disagree. But in a proud HN tradition it read as a confident and straightforward declaration that describes the (IMHO) minority case, but not the more common case and sweeps important nuance aside.

Please don’t take that to mean I thought your thoughts or understanding were also lacking in nuance, I didn’t. But I figure there will always be people coming through these threads who don’t know the nuance, they’ll read the highly upvoted top comments and move on, thinking they’ve improved their understanding, and they will be led astray, so I was responding to the words as-written.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Friday December 30, 2022 @12:20AM (#34182097)
In my defense, none of this can be explained in a short paragraph. And if I wrote a long treatise on it, nobody would read it! People read short things. So I stick to the Newtonian Mechanics explanation rather than the Einsteinian/QM explanation.

BTW, understanding how and why free markets work is not very intuitive. It took a long time for me to understand it, and long conversations with my dad who had a PhD in economics. About 98% of what lay people implicitly believe about economics is intuitively obvious, but quite wrong.

The old hoary "rich people hoard money" is one of those tropes.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by MuffinFlavored on Thursday December 29, 2022 @11:47PM (#34181902)
> Investing in stocks does provide jobs and income to others. When you buy stocks, the money goes to finance the business.

could somebody expand on this please? as far as I understood it, companies like Apple don’t issue shares very often. How does the share price going up go to their business unless they issue more shares (diluting existing shareholders)?

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by toast0 on Friday December 30, 2022 @12:05AM (#34182005)
Doesn't Apple use stock based compensation and doesn't that involve issuing stock?
Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Friday December 30, 2022 @12:15AM (#34182060)
I don't know what Apple does. Of course, Apple could buy it on the market and hand it to people to exercise their options. But the usual thing is the company creates the stock and hands it out.
Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by zeusk on Friday December 30, 2022 @03:21AM (#34183075)
Every company maintains a treasury of stock; SBC comes out of that but it is indeed newly issued shares that dilute the holdings.

However, with Apple and similar companies - they buyback A LOT more of the stock than they issue in SBC.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by 015a on Friday December 30, 2022 @12:43AM (#34182209)
Rich people don't predominately buy art from artists (for $100,000). They spend $100,000 on art from some art dealer, or other rich people; who paid $80,000 for it from someone else; that someone else paid $60,000 for it; and twenty steps down the line is either an actual artist who made pennies, or the artist is dead and no one involved had anything to do with its creation.

This is a similar phenomena as the stock market. "Why does the stock market exist" is an interesting question. The textbook answer would be: it allows companies to sell pieces of themselves to the public in order to raise capital. The caveat to this answer is, 99.99...9% of transactions on the stock market every day do not land money back in the company's checking account; the money lands with the person who owned the stock previously. Because of Federal Reserve Guaranteed Inflation, that person probably, usually, over long enough periods of time, paid less for it than the current buyer, and five million exchanges down the chain for this physical stock certificate is the company, during their IPO (or when they release more stock), who made just a bit of money.

There's nothing intrinsically negative in what I described above; its just "markets". In fact, here's the counter-argument to the point the article makes about it being negative: Why would I, as an Investor, purchase a slice of the pizza delivery app Sliceline at IPO if I cannot make a return on that investment? Framework, the company making fully upgradeable and repairable laptops, needs funding; why would I invest in them if not to see a return on investment? I'm a homeowner; maybe I shouldn't purchase a painting from a struggling local artist; after all, it probably won't see a return on investment.

I intentionally slid down the slope of examples there to prove a point. Imagine you Have Money; maybe a lot of money, let's call it N dollars. How you spend that N dollars communicates your morals, ethics, and values; it defines what your future looks like, and at large enough values of N, progressively starts defining what the future of our society looks like.

A recent tweet, which I haven't found but you can search for, paraphrased: "In ten years, my husband's salary has increased 90%, while mine has increased 18%. I've spent most of that time curing cancer; he's been optimizing ad click rates."

What we're talking about is a phenomena I'd label as The Assetization of Everything. The vast majority of the monetary expenses wealthy individuals and corporations make is viewed through the lens of return on investment. Its very rare to see a corporation, or even wealthy individuals, say "we believe in X, we believe X is good for our society, so we are giving X $10M". "Investors" would ask: Wait, are you getting stock? Is it a loan? Can you write it down on your taxes? What's going on? Yet, anyone is totally able to do this. Its not because of some law, though corporate fiduciary duty isn't helping. Federal Reserve policy did accelerate it, but its not the cause. The cause is Cultural. It can't be fixed.

We, the world, are approaching the endgame of this very quickly. It won't be pretty. We are not allocating even adjacent orders of magnitudes enough resources toward solving problems that represent existential threats to, at minimum, our way of life; maybe society as we know it; possibly civilization; unlikely, but, the human race. Its not going to start with any of the traditional culprits though; AI, global warming, killer virus, whatever. It'll start with something that seems rather inane: it'll get harder and harder to find investments which generate returns. Put another way: deflation; we had an era of ridiculous prosperity where we could have allocated resources to stave off the coming actual crisis, but we didn't, and now no one wants to invest in solving them.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Friday December 30, 2022 @02:38AM (#34182829)
If you think prosperity is bad for the planet, read up on the environmental devastation wrought by communist countries. When people are poor and cold and hungry they don't give a crap about the environment.
Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by CoolestBeans on Friday December 30, 2022 @02:06AM (#34182658)
The problem with purchasing assets in an environment like this is that you are transferring money from one cash hoarder to another. The velocity of money is low.

In the stock example, companies are also wealthy entities that hold cash when interest rates are cheap. For example, in 2017 (when rate targets were just above 0%) Apple had hundreds of billions in cash in Ireland and other tax haven nations. When Abenomics began in Japan and the Bank of Japan introduced zero interest rates and quantitative easing and yield curve control, one of the first things that happened was that companies started building huge money stores. When inflation remains stubbornly low, there isn't a strong need to get rid of your cash because it isn't losing a lot of value and you take little risk. You may as well hold on to it.

You're right that these economic activities are better than nothing but they aren't the kinds of activities that puts a generation of people to work and start building the kind of wealth that supports a family.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Friday December 30, 2022 @02:34AM (#34182805)
You could imagine that a cash hoard is passed around rich people, but there's going to be someone in the chain who is going to spend it on something other than art. Because rich people simply do not hoard cash. They do not have Scrooge McDuck cash vaults.

> companies started building huge money stores.

They don't have Scrooge McDuck cash vaults, either. Their money "store" is all invested.

> You may as well hold on to it.

Even if the money is deposited in a bank, it doesn't stay in the bank. The bank loans it out. That's how banks make money. You deposit money, they loan it out to someone who pays them interest.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by zeusk on Friday December 30, 2022 @03:19AM (#34183063)
> Even if the money is deposited in a bank, it doesn't stay in the bank. The bank loans it out. That's how banks make money. You deposit money, they loan it out to someone who pays them interest.

Not really, they'd rather buy treasuries and deposit at the FED for a risk-free 4-5% return and it shows in FRED data; roughly $2.5 Trillion dollars are currently held at just Fed's overnight repo facility. In return when banks do want to lend it out, poor people (often with bad or average credit) get ludicrous interest rates like 15-25%.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by CoolestBeans on Friday December 30, 2022 @04:57AM (#34183582)
Right so continue the money cycle. Lets say you take out a loan from the bank. There’s a low interest rate but it’s not zero so you better do something with it because you’ll have to pay the bank back. Maybe you could start a business making widgets but that’s really risky. It would be smarter to buy an appreciating asset like some real estate or maybe a share in a company. And hey a lot of people are buying assets so you know that as long as rates stay low someone else can borrow money to buy it off you at a higher price and you can pay the bank back and pocket some money. Or worst case someone with money saved might take it off your hands. Thats fine but we didn’t actually provide a good or service to the economy! All that’s happening is money is just wizzing around in equities markets inflating asset prices at best or creating dangerous bubbles at worst.

If neutral rates were higher then people with cash who want to invest would be more incentivized to buy a bond instead of a stock. But because the rate is higher the issuing company has to make at least that percentage to break even let alone make a profit. So they will need to make more widgets, which means they have to hire more people.

The down side of course is that rates are so high that companies can’t make enough money to pay back debt holders so they default and fail and have to fire everyone.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by imtringued on Friday December 30, 2022 @06:46AM (#34184168)
> rich people simply do not hoard cash.

70% of the money supply in Germany is literally sitting in checking accounts. If people actually saved money by lending it via certificate of deposits according to classical economics then this number would be much lower.

>They don't have Scrooge McDuck cash vaults, either. Their money "store" is all invested.

The parent said cash hoarder to cash hoarder and that is true when you buy stocks or art and neither consume the newly obtained money nor lend it out.

>Even if the money is deposited in a bank, it doesn't stay in the bank. The bank loans it out. That's how banks make money. You deposit money, they loan it out to someone who pays them interest.

As I said above, the money isn't lent out, new money is created with loans and the money that is being created is also kept in checking accounts so nobody is bringing their money to the bank in the way you imply. Money in checking accounts is essentially dead money. It is like the money in Scrooge McDuck's vault.

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Friday December 30, 2022 @01:01PM (#34187731)
Banks loan out the money that is deposited. People don't borrow money in order to let it sit in a bank account, either.
Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by spiralx on Saturday December 31, 2022 @08:10AM (#34196125)
No they don't, bank loans create new money directly.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-...

Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by nly on Friday December 30, 2022 @03:24AM (#34183091)
When you buy Microsoft stock, no money goes to Microsoft. Microsoft only raise capital when they issue new shares or sell reserved shares themselves. Stock markets are a secondary market.
Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by WalterBright on Friday December 30, 2022 @01:10PM (#34187884)
The stock would be worthless if there was no secondary market.
Re:Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Centra... by epgui on Saturday December 31, 2022 @01:45PM (#34199380)
I'm not sure what "axioms" you're referring to, but "inequality" is usually not considered bad.

What is more often considered bad is "inequity", which is what prevents a lot of people from earning a good, decent life. Some people work very hard in life and don't make any major bad decisions, and still have a hard life. Other people work little and have a good life. There's both inequality and inequity in this picture, but they're not the same thing.

What people object to is not mere inequality: inequality is expected to exist anywhere money exists. What people object to is "excessive inequality", or distributions of wealth where the Pareto coefficient is "too extreme". The reason why this is bad is because it effectively makes the "American dream" impossible for nearly everyone, in the extreme case.