How many people would buy an iPhone if they knew a better camera was coming a year down the line?

Wrong analogy. Not many would buy an iPhone if Apple removes the main camera and claims they can magically take pictures from the front camera alone, but reveals they will have a better main camera for next year’s model.

Elon has said it himself. There is never the right time to buy a Tesla. They are always changing things. And next year‘s car will always be better than this year‘s. And to some extend, this is true for anything you can buy in technology. So the idea that „if only people had known“ doesn‘t make any sense. The unspoken criticism here, of course, is that Tesla knew that they were going to re-integrate radar just a year later. And that they were withholding that knowledge from prospective buyers so that they wouldn‘t hold off making the purchase (there‘s a term for that effect, which unfortunately eludes me at this moment). But there is a much simpler explanation. They simply changed their mind. I think it took balls for Tesla to say that radar wasn‘t needed. After all, just a few years earlier they had written one of their big blog posts, which was titled „Seeing the World in Radar“. For them to say, „You know what, we realized we‘ve been on the wrong path. Fusing those sensors is actually making the decision process worse and not better“ - I find that a bold move. And it‘s not like it came out of the blue. Elon had said many times before that many phantom brake events were the result of radar and vision disagreeing with each other. So that issue had been a huge problem for them for a long time. The idea that these people at Tesla are sitting there and thinking about how they can fool the public seems just really crazy to me. From the start, their mission has been very clear: To get as many electric cars on the road as possible. And you just need to look out of the window in order to see that they‘ve kept their word. I‘m really quite puzzled by the amount of suspicion leveled at Tesla on HN. Have they missed their own deadlines on features? Of course they have. Elon promised the first coast-to-coast fully autonomous drive to be accomplished by the end of 2016. He literally said that he has „egg on his face“ in that regard. But it‘s them who said that goal in the first place. And it‘s clear that they are working on the problem, and that they are making progress. Elon Musk has managed to build a rocket company. His team made reusable rockets work - a thing that, to this day, no competitor and no government has been able to do. How can anyone seriously think that this man thinks about fooling the public? If you have power over the physical world - have seen that your team can make things that never existed before - why would you care about having power over people? Power over people is interesting only to those who have no power over nature. It‘s only when you cannot build that you become interested in stealing.

And about those „unrealistic“ deadlines… Tolstoy said something about that. He talked about Christianity. But it applies to big aspirations of any kind. I don‘t have the exact quote. But he said that if a man want to cross a river with a strong current, and he wants to reach a particular point at the other shore, then he cannot afford to just swim towards that point. Instead, he must swim towards a point that is far upstream of that point. He has to tell himself that he want to reach that point upstream, just in order to have a chance of arriving at his destination. It‘s not that he has to fool anyone. Or that he even had to fool himself. It‘s not that he has to swim „as if“ he wanted to reach that upstream target. He actually has to expend the effort it would take to reach that upstream target, and more. And I think that is what Tesla is doing. And Elon has said several times that it just isn‘t possible to communicate two different set of goals to those working inside the company and to the outside world. He has to focus on the target that seems just at the boundary of possibility. And when he does so, he cannot turn around to the consumer and tell them a different story full of disclaimers. He has to lead, and he has to burn his ships. Now, I understand that there are also Trevor Miltons in this world, and Elizabeth Holmes‘. But to put Elon in the same category just because both types of people demonstrate optimism in the future is, in my view at least, a pretty lousy heuristic.

> He claimed just cameras were sufficient for self driving

The latest builds of FSD beta prove that to be true.

The question now becomes what can be done to make it better, and how much better is required.

similarly, humans can clearly drive vehicles "sufficiently" after consuming alcohol. Countries disagree on the amount, and the definition of "sufficient".

> The latest builds of FSD beta prove that to be true.

Unless the latest builds of FSD beta work without requiring a driver, it doesn’t prove anything to be true. To be a self driving car, it has to actually work without anyone in the driver’s seat. That’s literally the definition.

It works a lot better than most people realize.

Obviously there is a person in this seat, but it would have done the same thing if there wasn't...

https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1599146605156130816

It has to be capable of doing it thousands of times to be considered safe enough to remove the driver. Just one drive without disengagement doesn't count. FSD is not repeatable currently, so it's not close L4 self driving. For reference, Waymo and Cruise have a disengagement every 30,000 miles. FSD requires orders of magnitude improvement in reliability to match that.

You originally said:

> He claimed just cameras were sufficient for self driving

And I showed a video where they are, clearly "sufficient".

Now you've moved the goal posts to:

> doing it thousands of times to be considered safe enough to remove the driver

Which is a completely different discussion.

It's coming.

No moving of goalposts. “Sufficient” means you need to demonstrate L4+ self driving with no driver. You’ve shown L2 driver assistance. By your definition, any car doing basic cruise control is self driving.

that isnt basic cruise control though. cruise control doesnt make unprotected left turns ....

dont hate the player, hate the game ra7