I talked to a guy recently who had a plausible-sounding theory that ad spend won't drop hugely, but it will be spent in fewer places - the bigger, "safer" sites.

The "bigger, safer" sites do not include Google's Content Network.

Our ad spending is going to remain about the same, but it's going to be targeted much more narrowly.

Actually, I think compared to the growth we've seen, a 10% drop would be pretty sharp. Not a "game over" drop, but it's a significant shift in direction. It's grown by 25-35% the last few years.