Googles Ad revenue from US alone could be 100B. If there are 100M converting users, that's 1000$ per user. 200$ per month cannot get you got. Think more like 100$ per month

Why should serving only this model cost as much as all of Google ?

GPT3 costs something like 5 cents a query. At 20 dollars a month, that would be 400 queries a month. I don't know about you but I'm pretty sure I do at least an order of magnitude more Google searches than that.

I don’t think every query needs this

Way off. The pricing for gpt3 is $0.02 per 1000 tokens for the largest model. 1000 tokens is about 750 words.

Google will just acquire those startups, more than likely.

From my knowledge, the cost of large language model search engine will be closer to $150~200 subscription per month than $15~20 in the status quo if the implementation is done naively. The cost will go down rapidly, but it's just not there yet.

I would consider paying $150-$200 / month for chat.openai.com access, especially if it continued to improve. It is an astonishing tool for learning and productivity. December 1, 2022 will be a day we all remember.

I agree. I haven't felt this excited by a new technology since the WWW. I can already solve hard problems with it which otherwise would require hiring consultants or spending inordinate amounts of time doing research. It's absolutely game changing.

What hard problems? I'm only using it to clean up my writing as a non-native speake

You might. Most people won't, especially not with how easily it can give you a wrong answer.

(I am extremely bullish on probabilistic productivity tools)

I think this is the intermediate solution. A Google Search Plus until economies of scale kick in. Most users will still prefer free slightly shittier search results but you can capitalize on the minority willing to pay and make a decent business out of it.

How up to date are LLMs likely to be for search? chatGPT is behind by a year or more. How quickly can an LLM be updated with recent content? That would seem to favor Google for the latest stuff.